|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||
How to feed ten billion people in the 21st century? An overview of trends and some ways to solve the problems of providing the growing population of the Earth with food is presented by Gazeta.Ru together with.
The number of people in the world is growing by about 70-80 million people a year. Never before has so many people lived on the planet at the same time. If you look at agriculture and food security, each person tends to increase consumption, respectively, at the same time as absolute consumption due to population growth, relative consumption also increases.
The question arises: “Is there enough food to satisfy the growing appetites of a growing population, given that about 1 billion people are already starving?”
Therefore, in terms of food, the challenge facing the world in the 21st century is threefold: a) to meet the growing demand for food from a growing and wealthier population; b) do it in an environmentally sustainable way; c) cope with the problem of hunger.
The world's agriculture will face the following constraints at the global level in the next 50 years:
1. No new lands available.
2. Changing climatic conditions in traditional crop growing areas. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.
3. Soil degradation.
4. Increasing regional shortage of fresh water.
5. Decreased yield growth rate even with increased fertilizer volume.
6. Increasing dependence on fossil fuels (logistics, raw materials).
7. No new fish resources.
8. Population growth.
9. Dietary transition, in connection with the growth of well-being.
In the past, the main ways to deal with food shortages were agricultural development of new land and the use of new fish stocks.
However, over the past five decades, while grain production has more than doubled, the amount of land dedicated to arable farming around the world has increased by only a few percent.
Of course, some new land may be brought into cultivation, but competition for land from other human activities makes this an increasingly less likely and costly solution, especially with greater attention to biodiversity conservation. In recent decades, certain agricultural areas that were previously productive have been lost due to urbanization and other human activities, as well as due to desertification, salinization, soil erosion and other consequences of unsustainable land use. Further losses are also likely, exacerbated by climate change. Producing first-generation biofuels on good, quality agricultural land also adds competitive pressure to food production. Fresh water scarcity is already causing significant problems in China and India. Human influence on the nitrogen and phosphate cycles has disrupted the natural systems for the utilization of these elements and this influence will not weaken, as fertilizers are responsible for half of the crop, and the use of fertilizers will only increase.
However, in more detail about the limits of agriculture in the 21st century, with an emphasis on fresh water, nutrients and hydrocarbons, "Gazeta.Ru" told in the material "Traps of fresh water and acid rain."
Accordingly, at the global level in the 21st century, more food will need to be produced on the same amount of land (or even less). The latest future demand studies show that the world will need 70-100% more food by 2050.
It is obvious that humanity will actively solve these problems in the coming decades. Different countries will face different challenges, for example in China the main challenges for agriculture will be a rapid dietary transition due to rising incomes. Dietary transition from a predominantly vegetarian diet to a diet containing a large proportion of meat products requires several times the use of nutrients, fresh water, soil and other things, which will significantly increase the burden on agriculture and have a negative impact on the environment. African countries are characterized by other problems - low yields and such negative environmental impacts of expanding agricultural areas as deforestation and desertification.
In Russia, the problems are of a completely different nature: we are dependent on food imports, the country does not provide itself with meat products. Accordingly, Russia is dependent on international markets for meat products, which is an unsustainable long-term strategy.
Each region can identify its own problems, but if we consider agriculture as a single global industry in the long term, then the limits and trends listed at the beginning of this article will play a major role, although global agricultural problems will be solved locally.
Below is an overview of the trends and some of the ways to solve the problems that have arisen in providing a growing population with food. These solutions are scientific and practical mainstream. It is far from a fact that these solutions, even implemented, will be able to improve the situation, and not drive into an even greater dead end.
Method 1. Increasing yields through traditional practices
There are significant differences in crop and livestock productivity even in regions with similar climates. The difference between actual productivity and the best productivity that can be achieved with current genetic material, available technology and management is called the "yield gap". Achieving the best local yield depends on the ability of farmers/peasants to access and use seeds, water, nutrients, soil, soil pest control, biodiversity benefits, and access to advanced knowledge and management systems.
Closing yield gaps can dramatically increase food supply, but at the same time exacerbate negative environmental impacts such as greenhouse gas emissions (especially methane and nitrous oxide, which have a larger greenhouse effect than CO 2 and are largely produced by agriculture) , soil erosion, depletion of fresh water horizons, increased eutrophication, destruction of biodiversity due to conversion of agricultural land.
Method 2. Increasing food production through genetic modification
Today, the speed and cost of genome sequencing and resequencing are such that improved breeding and genetic modification techniques can be easily applied to develop crop varieties that produce high yields even under difficult conditions. This is especially true for crops such as sorghum, millet, cassava, banana, which are staple foods for many of the world's poorest communities.
Today, genetic modification is used mainly in the production of soybeans (70% of the total area under crops), cotton (49%), corn (26%), rapeseed/canola (21%). The area under GM crops is 9% of the world's crop area, mainly in the USA, Brazil, Argentina, India, Canada and China. According to Sygenta, about 90% of farmers growing GM seeds are farmers in developing countries and mostly cotton growers.
At present, the main commercial genetically modified crops are created by relatively simple manipulations, such as the introduction of a herbicide resistance gene or a gene to produce a toxin against insect pests. The next decade is likely to see the development of combinations of desirable traits and the introduction of new traits such as drought tolerance. By mid-century, much more radical options may be possible.
EXAMPLES OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE APPLICATIONS OF GM TECHNOLOGIES FOR GENETIC IMPROVEMENT OF YIELDS. SOURCE: SCIENCE
| Period of time | Target crop trait | Target crops |
|---|---|---|
| Currently | Tolerance to broad spectrum herbicides | Corn, soybeans, cabbage oilseeds |
| Resistance to chewing pests | Corn, cotton, cabbage oilseeds | |
| Short term (5-10 years) | Strengthening nutrition | Major cereals, sweet potatoes |
| Resistance to fungus and viral pathogens | Potatoes, wheat, rice, bananas, fruits, vegetables | |
| Resistance to sucking pests | Rice, fruits, vegetables | |
| Improved handling and storage | Wheat, potatoes, fruits, vegetables | |
| Drought resistance | ||
| Medium term (10-20 years) | Excess Salt Tolerance | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables |
| Increasing the efficiency of nitrogen use | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables | |
| High temperature resistance | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables | |
| Long term (more than 20 years) | Apomixis | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables |
| Nitrogen fixation | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables | |
| Production and a denitrification | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables | |
| Transition to perennial | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables | |
| Increase photosynthetic efficiency | Common Cereals and Root Vegetables |
Most likely, following the goal of increasing yields in a limited area, while simultaneously resilience to climate change, the world will actively move into the genetic transformation of plants.
For example, Bill Gates is already investing in Monsanto (founded in 1901 as a purely chemical company, it has now evolved into a high-tech agricultural concern whose main product is now genetically modified corn seeds). , soybeans, cotton and the most common herbicide in the world, Roundup). Gates believes that genetically modified plants will save the world from hunger.
Although there are many arguments against the widespread use of GM foods. Since genetic modifications involve altering the germline of an organism and introducing it into the environment and food chain, the problem with GM technology is that the long-term effects of genetically modified crops on the human body, environment, and biodiversity are unknown. That is why there is significant and understandable resistance to genetically modified products in the world, especially in countries such as India, in which the huge population and growing demand from the wealthy middle class make it necessary to look, including such radical ways as GM technologies to provide the population food. Suman Sahai, professor of genetics, recipient of the Norman Borlaug Award for excellence in agriculture and environmental protection, in the article "Why is there distrust of GM foods" notes that the production of GM seeds is controlled by only six companies in the world, What
causes a significant lack of open information and a corresponding lack of trust on the part of consumers, regulators and non-profit organizations.
Method 3. Waste reduction
To the question “What needs to be done to provide 10 billion people with food?” Ida Kubiszewski, professor at the University of Portland and managing editor of The Solutions, argues that the world produces absolutely enough food today, but about 30 to 50% of food, in both developed and developing countries, is wasted wasted, albeit for very different reasons.
In developing countries, losses are mainly due to the lack of infrastructure in the production chain, for example, technologies for storing produced food on farms, during transportation, and in storage before sale. Huge storage losses are common in developing countries such as India, where 35-40% of fresh food is wasted because neither wholesalers nor retailers are equipped with refrigeration equipment.
In Southeast Asia, there is a significant loss even of rice, which can be stored without special equipment. As a result, after harvesting, up to a third of the crop is lost due to pests and spoilage.
In developed countries, losses to the retail stage are much lower, but losses occurring at the retail, catering and individual consumption stages are significant. For example, consumers are used to buying products that are cosmetically good, hence retailers throw away a lot of edible but slightly damaged products. Also, for consumers in developed countries, food is relatively cheap, which reduces incentives to reduce waste.
Accordingly, one of the main strategies for sufficient food supply for mankind will be to reduce losses along the entire production and consumption chain. At the same time, food waste will be more widely used in agriculture for livestock feed, since it is necessary to reduce the load of livestock farming on arable land, as well as fertilizers, since such use does not require the direct use of inexhaustible resources and additional significant energy costs (except for transportation).
Method 4. Changing diets
The efficiency of converting plant energy into animal energy is about 10%, so more people can feed on the same amount of land if they become vegetarians. Currently, about one-third of the world's cereal production is used as livestock feed, and one of the main drivers of increasing pressure on the food system is the rapidly growing demand for meat and dairy products. Demand is growing as a result of general development, which is accompanied by an increase in the income of the population.
The following feedback is amazing - world population will continue to grow up to a likely plateau of 9-10 billion people by 2050.
The main factor in slowing down the rate of population growth, and, accordingly, the means of combating hunger, is the elimination of illiteracy. This leads to higher wealth and higher incomes, and with higher purchasing power comes higher consumption and increased demand for processed food, meat, dairy and fish. As a result, such a tendency to fight hunger in the long term only adds to the burden on food supply systems. Growth in demand has led over the past 50 years to a 1.5-fold increase in the number of cattle, sheep and goats in the world, as well as a 2.5-fold and 4.5-fold increase in the number of pigs and chickens, respectively. A new round of this growth in the coming decades will be triggered by an increase in the wealth and size of the middle class in countries such as China and India.
Reducing meat consumption also has other benefits besides being able to feed more people.
Well-balanced diets rich in grains and other plant foods are considered healthier than those high in meat and dairy products. But breaking current trends and switching to plant-based diets in the medium term is not possible. Command and centralized methods that can be used to change diets, even if they work in individual countries, cannot be implemented on a global scale. It is only through long-term cultural change that it is possible to achieve a "reverse dietary transition" from higher-calorie, predominantly animal-based diets to plant-based diets. It is clear that the process of such a transition will take more than one generation, of course, if you do not take into account the events that are unpredictable today, which can significantly accelerate the transition, for example, the possible emergence of an epidemic and pandemic of livestock diseases, such as rabies.
Method 5. Aquaculture expansion
Fish, aquatic mollusks and crustaceans play an important role in the food system, providing approximately 15% of the animal protein consumed by mankind. Peter Drucker, one of the founders of management, in his book The Age of Discontinuity suggested that the ocean industries, in particular fishing, will be the basis of human activity in the 21st century.
Already today we can say that, at least with fishing, Drucker was wrong.
Since 1990, about a quarter of wild fish stocks have been severely overfished. Some of the fish were completely exhausted. A typical example is that last year a bluefin tuna carcass was sold in Japan at an auction for $730,000, and the cost of one roll of this fish was more than $100. Of course, some people may say that it is “very high-status” to eat such expensive products. We can say that the value of one fish has become this, since there are no more bluefin tuna left in the ocean.
It is because of overfishing and the depletion of wild fish resources that the world will switch to aquaculture in the future. Aquaculture is now booming in Southeast Asia, where cheap labor and a favorable climate contribute to this growth rate. Replicating this growth in regions such as Africa could go a long way in tackling the hunger problem.
In the future, aquaculture can achieve even greater productivity through improved crop selection, large-scale production, aquaculture in open waters and large inland waters, and the cultivation of a wider range of species.
A wider choice of production conditions (tolerance of fluctuations in temperature and salinity, resistance to diseases) and cheaper feed (for example, plant materials with increased nutritional value) may become available using GM technologies, but problems associated with the long-term impact of GM technologies will need to be addressed. on the body of fish, humans and the environment in general. Aquaculture can cause harm to the environment, firstly, due to the ingress of organic effluents or medicinal chemicals into water bodies, and secondly, as a source of diseases or genetic pollution of wild species.
New technologies can be a dead end
Despite a wide range of technological horizons, new technologies in terms of energy costs are likely to be a dead end in the development of agriculture. If we systematically consider the process of creating, developing, implementing and using new technologies from the point of view of costs, then today much more energy is spent on food production than we receive in return. This was not always the case, and it is obvious that “traditional” agriculture is much more advantageous from this point of view.
It is easier to reveal this statement on the example of oil production. At the beginning of the 20th century, it took 1 barrel of oil to produce 100 barrels of oil. The EROI(Energy Return on Investments) ratio was 1:100. Today it is about 1:15, and shale gas technologies will reduce it to 1:2-3. Similar trends are developing in agriculture. If traditional agriculture used 1 kilocalorie of energy to produce 5 to 10 kilocalories of food energy, today it takes 10 or more (up to 500) kilocalories of energy to produce 1 kilocalorie of food (see diagram).
About non-renewable resources, it is clear that when an easily accessible resource is exhausted, the cost of extracting a less accessible resource increases, and the EROI coefficient, in turn, decreases. In the case of agriculture, with a growing population and growing demand, any move away from natural, and therefore "free" resources (natural supply of fresh water, soil productivity, biodiversity), significantly reduces EROI and similar coefficients.
Take, for example, aquaculture. In the case of natural marine harvesting of wild species, the main costs are directed to catching fish, and there are no costs for fish feeding, as fish feed in the open ocean. Today, aquaculture needs to be grown, fed and treated. This requires manpower, territory, equipment and much, much more. This accordingly increases resource costs, and farmed fish, in principle, has a lower energy value.
Now take the latest super-efficient vertical farm projects in metropolitan areas. It is obvious that these projects have exorbitant resource and energy return coefficients, approximately 500 kilocalories are spent in these projects to obtain one kilocalorie.
Separately, it is worth noting an important economic consequence of the development of such trends. In traditional economics, the cost of a product has never included "resource cost". There is no such thing as “resource cost” at all. For example, the cost of a barrel of oil is determined only by the costs of extraction, labor, transportation, office rent, tanks, and other similar costs. The very volume of oil contained in the rock has always been considered and is considered free. But today, when we no longer have enough traditional resources, the “resource replacement cost” appears. The emergence of replacement cost makes new technologies economically unprofitable when compared with traditional technologies based on a free resource.
Accordingly, humanity is switching to more costly and less efficient ways of obtaining energy and food.
The reason is clear, for the development and replication of new technologies it is necessary to spend a huge amount of effort, time and energy. Personnel costs, new construction and other activities significantly increase energy costs. Accordingly, the risks of declining and negative coefficients similar to EROI, someone must finance. In the case of agriculture, they are financed by governments that subsidize the industry, and by international organizations that provide financial assistance to those in need. This leads to a situation where humanity spends and will continue to spend money on maintaining an absolutely inefficient system of production and agriculture in particular.
That is why, with the exhaustion of non-renewable resources and the use of renewable resources outside the natural balances, the world enters a “dangerous territory”, which at the beginning, at least, will be characterized by an increase in the price of all types of resources, and in the end can lead to catastrophic situations.
For sustainable food production, in a strategic perspective, agriculture, as an industry that works on natural renewable resources and geochemical cycles (soil, nitrogen, fresh water, carbon, phosphorus) will have to return to the use of resources at a level no greater than that possible in the natural cycle . Otherwise, we will have, and in fact we already have, production that is absolutely inefficient in terms of resource and energy costs, since we spend more than we receive. In the long run, this strategy does not work.
Conclusion
Unfortunately, there are no simple solutions to the problem of sustainable food supply for 9 billion people, especially with the general increase in wealth and the transition of a large part of the population to the way of consumption characteristic of rich countries. Growth in food production will indeed be important, but more than ever it will be limited to the finite resources of land, oceans and atmosphere, and will also need to take into account climate change, increasing pollution, growing population and changes in diets and the impact of products on human health.
It is obvious that the changes in agriculture in the 21st century will be no less, but rather more radical, than the changes that occurred during the "Green Revolution" in the 20th century.
Setting goals and designing these changes will be one of the main tasks of science in the 21st century. But hopes for future scientific and technological innovation in food provision cannot justify postponing decisions that are difficult and needed today, and any optimism must be tempered in view of the sheer scale of the challenges.
With a billion hungry people in the world, you need to think outside the box.
In preparing the article, materials were used from Science, The Solutions, books and articles by Vaclav Smil, “Limits to Growth. 30 years later”, reports FAO, The International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Water Resource Group, UN Water.
Recently, in a number of regions of the globe, the food situation has been constantly aggravated. The reasons for this are mainly not natural, arising from the quality of land, but social and political. Famine in many developing countries is a concentrated result of their socio-economic development under conditions of long-term imperialist colonial and neo-colonial exploitation.
Providing food for a constantly growing population in the 80s is one of the main global problems of mankind. The world food problem is one of the long-term and most complex problems of the world economy and politics.
World agriculture is based on a huge area of cultivated land and pastures, occupying about 4 billion hectares.
One of the most serious questions to be solved by today's agriculture is the increase in food production necessary to meet the needs of a growing population; According to existing estimates, 2/3 of the world's population lives in countries where there is a constant shortage of food. In addition, it is expected that by the year 2000 there will be only about 0.2 hectares of cultivated land per inhabitant of the Earth, although back in 1950 this figure was 0.5 hectares.
The growth of world food reserves is ensured, on the one hand, by the expansion of the cultivated area, and, on the other hand, by an increase in production on the existing area. Until about 1950, the main way to increase agricultural production was to expand the area of arable land, and in a later period, mainly to increase crop yields. Today, about 90% of the annual increase in world food production is provided by the intensification of agriculture.
The development of productive forces, the growth of the population, the extensive construction of cities lead to the occupation of large areas by non-agricultural facilities, to the destruction of the fertile soil layer. All this leaves a number of countries with no choice but to direct ever new efforts to increase the productivity of available cultivated land.
Food production in developing countries in the first half of the 1960s began to lag behind population growth. For most of them, the most important economic problem of today is the need to provide the population with their own food. It is difficult to solve this problem in a short time, since the agriculture of these countries, as a rule, is the most backward branch of their economy, which does not have the necessary material and technical base, and therefore, despite the high level of employment, remains inefficient.
Certain approaches to the development of the agricultural sector in developing countries are contained in the "National Food Strategy" proposed by the World Food Council. The main emphasis in this document is on the need to mobilize the domestic resources of developing countries in order to increase food production.
When discussing this document, representatives of developing countries agreed on the need for priority development of their own agricultural production in the presence of international assistance provided through world and regional banks. At the same time, it was noted that this assistance should not only be expressed in direct food supplies, but also facilitate the access of developing countries to new equipment and technology, i.e., ultimately lead to progressive socio-economic transformations in their agriculture.
Representatives of the socialist countries proposed a broad program for increasing agricultural output through the development of unused lands, the extensive development of irrigation, the use of mineral fertilizers, and the breeding of new breeds of livestock in accordance with local conditions. At the same time, it was emphasized that assistance to developing countries in the implementation of their plans should not replace their own national efforts.
Among the main factors determining the food situation of individual countries in the world are: the availability and quality of land resources; bioclimatic potential of the territory; the share of energy resources used in the agricultural sector; labor resources and rates of their reproduction; the possibility of using the achievements of scientific and technological progress in food production; state of world trade.
According to Soviet experts, the new aggravation of the world food problem is the result of the combined action of the following reasons: first, an excessive load on the natural potential of agriculture and fisheries, which hinders its natural restoration; secondly, the insufficient pace of scientific and technological progress in agriculture in developing countries, which does not compensate for the declining scale of natural renewal of resources; thirdly, the ever-increasing instability in the world trade in food, fodder and fertilizers that arose in the early 1970s.
At present, many concepts of food policy are in circulation in the developed capitalist countries, which differ in their assessments of the prospects for the world food situation, the scope of the problem, the proposed methods and means of solving it, etc. Among them are the so-called "humanistic", "institutional ”, “technical”, “diplomatic” and other concepts. However, if we take a deeper look at the essence of each of them, then everywhere it comes down to artificially curbing scientific and technological progress in agriculture, maintaining high food prices, none of them practically takes into account the need for socio-economic transformations in developing countries. Even V. I. Lenin noted that “no loans, no land reclamation, no “help” to the peasant, no ... measures of “assistance” will not give any serious results as long as the oppression of feudal latifundia, traditions, economic systems remains” (Lenin V.I. Sobr. op., vol. 17, p. 77).
With regard to food aid provided to the peoples of developing countries by large capitalist states, it is of little effectiveness in solving national food problems and is often used by the latter as an instrument of political or socio-economic pressure.
In conditions of high rates of natural population growth in developing countries (2.5%) and a sharp deepening of the general crisis of capitalism, bourgeois ideologists - representatives of modern Malthusianism (G. Butul, V. and P. Paddock, F. Hauser, etc.) pessimistically assess the possibilities rational use of natural resources and put forward reactionary theories about hunger as a derivative of "natural" factors. They attribute social disasters to the tropics and subtropics and tendentiously interpret the fact that high population growth rates coincide with low living standards in developing countries, turning a blind eye to the extremely low level of agricultural production as a direct result of capitalist management and centuries of plunder of former colonies and semi-colonies. These futurists do not want to see new trends in food production in many countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, which have embarked on a new path of development, where the growth rate of gross food production in 1952-1962. accounted for 3.1% against 2.5% in the developed capitalist countries, and in 1962-1972. - 2.7% vs. 2.4%.
Marxism-Leninism, while not denying the important role of a sound demographic policy in this situation, proceeds from socio-economic conditions and the role of social production, and not from the primacy of biological factors in the development of society. Only scientific and technological progress and an increase on the basis of its production of high-quality agricultural products, including food crops, will help in the long term (until 2000) to double food production. Given the need to improve existing levels of nutrition, food production needs to be tripled and for developing countries to be quadrupled. Further intensification of agricultural production, as well as the expansion of productive land - these are the real ways to solve this problem.
Calculations made by V. A. Kovda show that doubling and tripling the crop in the future is a difficult task, but quite solvable. This is evidenced by the experience of many industrialized countries, as well as the successful solution of the food problem in the USSR and other socialist countries, carried out on the basis of revolutionary socio-economic transformations in the interests of the people. And the further main line of development of the agrarian-industrial complex of the socialist countries is connected with the industrialization of agriculture, the deepening of specialization and the concentration of production on the basis of its inter-farm cooperation and agro-industrial integration.
At the same time, the territorial possibilities of land resources are far from being exhausted for agriculture. If we do not take into account the clearly problematic prospects for agricultural development of 9.33 billion hectares, i.e. 70% of the land surface, and the "grand" projects to increase food production at the expense of the ocean, as well as a very optimistic quantitative assessment of the biological productivity of land, then more or less realistic can be considered the hypothesis of doubling the cultivated area.
Vast expanses of the Earth's surface are not cultivated, but they are suitable for processing, for this only labor resources and capital investments are needed. However, the expansion of arable areas is hindered by unfavorable physical and geographical conditions in many regions of the planet.
For example, more than half of the territory of the Soviet Union - the largest country in the world, occupying almost a sixth of the entire land on the planet - belongs to cold regions, where it is impossible to cultivate crops in open ground with the current level of agricultural technology. Almost a third of the territory of our country is occupied by mountains, desert areas are significant. Only 25% of the total land fund is suitable for agricultural needs, and arable land occupies approximately 10% of the country's territory.
THE PROBLEM OF PROVIDING THE POPULATION WITH SAFE FOOD AND THE STATE OF THE FOOD MARKET IN RUSSIA
Shabanova T.I.,
The most urgent and socially significant problem of our time is the problem of providing the population of the planet with food. It becomes especially acute in the conditions of the constantly growing population of the Earth.
Nutrition is one of the most important determinants of human health and longevity. Nutrition, organized in accordance with the real needs of a person and providing an optimal level of metabolism, is called rational.
A full and regular supply of the body with the necessary substances - (food components - nutrients) is an important factor in maintaining human health, performance and active longevity. Poor nutrition is one of the risk factors, and in some cases the most important trigger for the development of various non-communicable diseases, in addition, it worsens the course of acute and chronic diseases and slows down the healing process.
It has been established that 70% of all diseases are associated with malnutrition. In modern conditions in the Omsk region, up to 58% of diseases of the circulatory system, such as coronary heart disease, hypertension, most anemia, a third of malignant neoplasms of various localization are caused precisely by a violation of the principles of healthy nutrition.
The nutrition of modern man has changed significantly and is completely different not only from what it was in the 70-80s of the twentieth century, but even in comparison with the near 90s. The cataclysms that shook the country in which we were born and live, the spontaneous formation of a market economy in young Russia, the inevitable adherence to global economic trends have led to the fact that a significant part of Russians are currently experiencing a shortage of high-grade animal protein, consuming harmful animal fats in excess, receiving less at the same time, useful plant, dietary fibers, vitamins, microelements, that is, all those substances that are called by the general term - micronutrients.
In our time, the question of the quality, safety and availability of food is very tough.
In 2000, the UN announced the need to realize the so-called "Millennium Development Goals" (English millennium goals). One of the main goals is to halve the number of hungry people by 2015. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) today counts more than 800 million people in developing countries who suffer from malnutrition. Of these, more than 200 million live in sub-Saharan Africa, many of whom suffer from chronic hunger. In India, one fifth of the population - 221 million - suffer from malnutrition. 142 million Chinese are starved, and in Latin America 53 million. Even in the richest country in the world, the US, 10 million people are starving and another 35 million are not guaranteed food. At the same time, many people (and this is the unnatural reverse side of hunger) are overweight and obese. Hunger is also returning to Germany, where a package of laws has been passed to reform the system of social assistance and assistance to the unemployed.
Hunger kills. Every year, 30 million people die of hunger, of which 6 million are children. In other words, every 5 seconds, one child dies of starvation on Earth. However, to date, there is no food shortage in the world that could explain this catastrophe. Jean Ziegler, an expert at the UN Commission on Human Rights, based on these dramatic facts, came to the conclusion: "A child who died of starvation was actually killed."
This is an energy crisis, because there are not enough calories due to missing food. Food is becoming more and more expensive: from 2004 to 2008, food prices increased by an average of 83%, while the price of wheat - by 181%, for rice - by as much as 201%. The World Bank states that this is not a temporary, but, on the contrary, a long-term phenomenon. Therefore, more and more people are not provided with basic food. Recent famine riots in Haiti, West Africa, Egypt, Mexico, Calcutta and the Philippines are still warnings that have been flagged by international organizations. At the early April 2008 conference of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, not only the global financial crisis, oil depletion and climate change were on the agenda, but also the global nutrition crisis. Both the energy crisis (fossil energy and food) and the financial crisis have interrelated causes.
Over the past 15-17 years, about 40 million hectares of arable land out of about 120 million have been overgrown with weeds and forests in Russia. Of the 60 million heads of cattle, less than 15 million survived in the same years, including 21 million cows - 6 million out of 10 million people employed in Russian agriculture in 1991-
1992, less than 2 million people remain today. According to the latest census, about 50,000 villages have less than... 10 inhabitants! Of the 25,000 large farms, most are ruined, and it is precisely such farms that have always been the main suppliers of basic foodstuffs. The result - today in Russia the main agricultural products (milk, meat, fish, eggs) are produced by two-thirds less than before perestroika.
You may ask: but why then are supermarkets bursting with groceries? The answer is this. There is only one objective indicator, whether there are many or few products in stores - this is per capita consumption. In Soviet times, we ranked 5-6th in the world in terms of production and consumption of basic foodstuffs, France and Great Britain were in 11th and 12th. Now, with the external abundance of everything, we fell back to 78-80th place! Yes, the shops are full, but at the same time, schoolchildren are fainting from hunger, dystrophic soldiers are being drafted into the army.
In addition, most of the agricultural products flaunting on store shelves come from abroad. If in 1997-1998 Russia bought it for $5 billion, now it costs $30 billion. We feed Western farmers, we destroy our peasantry. It is not worth talking about the quality of imported products - it is not without reason that we often import products that are prohibited for sale in the USA and Europe. The main thing is different - we are turning into a colony of the West. Just a little, and we will simply be blocked from the flow of "cheap" products.
At the end of August 2008, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that it was necessary to suspend the fulfillment of Russia's unilateral commitments related to its accession to the WTO. We are lucky that we have not joined the WTO yet. Although, striving for the WTO, in 2005 Russia signed and honestly fulfills an agreement according to which we must increase imports by 5% every year. This is happening to the detriment of their own interests: a lot of money that could be used to develop their own production is flowing to the West. And this despite the fact that the WTO as a global organization practically does not exist anymore. All summits that have been held for the last 8 years end in zero. The participating countries are not even able to adopt any common memorandum at the end of these summits.
Previously, everyone perceived the WTO as an elite club like the Big Eight, where it is prestigious to be. In fact, the WTO was created by the United States, a number of developed countries joined it - to capture emerging markets. There is simply no need to talk about some kind of liberalization of international trade. The Americans are planning to import any product - down to every pair of shoes. And we have? Who in the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia knows how many shoes will be brought to us in the next 10 years?
The problem of integrating the national economy into the world economy requires serious scientific study, which allows, despite the objective and subjective difficulties of the transition period, on the basis of an integrated approach to integrate modern scientific achievements, primarily in the field of improving food production technologies.
Recently, the definition of food security has become widespread in the world as a state of the economy, which guarantees the provision of all inhabitants at any time with food in the amount necessary for an active and healthy life. Food security can be considered guaranteed if a reliable and sufficient supply of the population with basic types of food is established according to medical standards.
In this regard, the problem of ensuring Russia's food security should become a priority in the economic strategy, because its solution is of exceptional social and political significance.
The current situation in the food supply of the population, along with the aggravation of the global commodity, demographic, environmental and economic crises, leads to an objective increase in confrontation in society, which creates a real threat to national security.
Since nutrition is the most important factor influencing the vitality of any community, then food security can rightly be considered as part of the national security of the country.
For Russia, of these crises, the food crisis is the most dangerous and therefore relevant today. The urgency of this crisis is also increasing because “big” crises are always accompanied by “small” ones. And the history of Russia shows that all the revolutions that took place on its territory began with food riots, that it was hunger that was the unifying force in all the revolutions that took place on the territory of Russia. In this regard, we must be extremely attentive to food security issues, both in the country in general and in the Omsk region in particular.
Literature:
1. Vybornov R.G. Food security of the population in the XXI century. // Journal of Economic Issues, 9. 2000.
2. Delyagin M.A. Consumer Market: Opportunities for Recovery. // Free Thought, 2003, 5.
3. Ivanok R.L. The state of the food market in Russia in the first half of 2003 // Newspaper Economics and Life, 10 2003. P. 4.
The problem of hunger and malnutrition worries the world community throughout the history of mankind. Even despite the very rapid development of science and technology and the constant improvement of technology, the food problem has not only not disappeared, but has manifested itself with even greater force. This problem is the subject of special attention of every state seeking to ensure the well-being of its population. The availability of adequate food supplies guarantees the satisfaction of essential human needs, in particular the guarantee of the human right to life. Due to the relevance of this problem, the task of the study is to exclude any misunderstanding of its fundamental importance.
Recently, there has been a sharp aggravation of the food problem all over the world, but to a greater extent the problem of food shortages has affected developing countries, namely a number of post-socialist states. In particular, attention should be paid to needy countries such as Togo and Mongolia, where average per capita food consumption in terms of energy value is less than 2000 kcal per day and continues to decline. However, in a number of developing countries, consumption levels are quite acceptable and currently exceed 3,000 kcal per capita per day. The category of such countries includes Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Morocco, Mexico, Syria and Turkey.
As you know, in developed countries the volume of consumed products is much higher than in developing ones. That is, today there are 2 opposite problems, while in some states the majority of the population suffers from overeating and being overweight, in others, on the contrary, malnutrition is a problem. Interestingly, at the moment in the world the number of overweight people exceeds the number of hungry people. The total number of overeaters is approximately 600 million people, in particular, in the United States, 100 million people fall into this category, or more than half of all residents of the country aged 20 years and older. However, the problem of obesity is typical not only for developed countries, it also exists among residents of “chronically undernourished” regions. This is due to malnutrition, lack of certain nutrients, or metabolic problems. However, the cause of obesity in the population of Europe and North America lies elsewhere. Advertising is what creates the cult of food. The abundance of food and delicacies makes people make rash purchases, turning food not as a necessity, but as a way to enjoy. Accordingly, the requirements and the level of consumption are increasing.
In general, in terms of food security, the following types of countries are distinguished:
The true scale and severity of the food problem can be estimated on the basis of research data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Based on FAO statistics, the number of hungry people on the planet is approximately 500 million, while about 240 million people are doomed to disease and death as a result of hunger. According to FAO, in addition to the hunger in 2010-2012, almost 870 million people are chronically undernourished, which is 12.5% of the world's population, that is, one in eight people, with the vast majority - 852 million people - living in developing countries, where at present, by An estimated 14.9% of the population is undernourished (Table 1).
Table 1 - Dynamics of the number of undernourished in the world, 1999-2012
Index |
Number (million) of undernourished |
|||
Developed regions |
||||
Developing countries |
||||
Latin America and the Caribbean |
||||
Source: FAO
From the presented table, we see that, in general, the growth rate of the undernourished population in the world is decreasing, mainly due to the improvement in the food situation in the developing countries of Asia, but nevertheless, the positive growth of the analyzed indicator is due to the constant increase in the number of undernourished people in African countries, where 22.9% of all the hungry.
Today, various forms of malnutrition in many developing countries are very common among the general population. This is because while conventional diets may provide sufficient calories, they do not contain the required minimum of protein, fat and micronutrients.
According to the FAO estimates, the approximate diet per person should be 2400-2500 kcal per day. However, some authors believe that "average" a inhabitant of the Earth needs more kcal for normal life, namely 2700-2800 kcal per day. Definitely, this indicator can vary depending on gender, age, type of work, natural and climatic conditions in which a person lives. But nevertheless, there is a "starvation diet" equal to less than 1000 kcal per day, which causes physical degradation of the body; it is received, according to available estimates, up to 800 million people. .
Another no less common form of hunger is chronic malnutrition, it covers about 1.5 billion people in the world who receive only 1000-1800 kcal per day. Unlike famine, which can be caused by crop failures and affects localized, albeit vast, densely populated areas, chronic malnutrition is a more serious problem.
According to the norm developed by the FAO, the diet should include at least 100 g of protein per day, so a diet that lacks not only calories, but also proteins (mainly of animal origin), fats, vitamins, various trace elements, is considered inferior. According to the FAO, about 40% of the world's inhabitants receive good nutrition.
The lack of vital components often observed in the diet of many people in developing countries, the consequence of this is a number of serious diseases that children and young people are more susceptible to (for example, nutritional malnutrition).
Hunger and malnutrition have existed for a long time, but if earlier the main factor causing them was poorly developed agricultural production, then at the present stage, characterized by scientific and technological progress, the productive forces have reached a level of development at which they are able to provide food to a greater number of people than currently lives on our planet.
In accordance with the calculations of British experts, even with the current methods of cultivating the land, it is possible to provide food for more than 10 billion people, but mankind uses cultivated land extremely unproductively and out of 45 million square meters. km of land suitable for agricultural processing, less than 1/3 of the land is used.
Another problem today is the fact that products, for the cultivation of which up to 1/4 of all arable land is used, are exported to the industrialized countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, that is, developing countries specializing in the production of tropical and industrial crops become dependent from their export earnings. Also, developed countries are trying to control product prices by arbitrary setting of quotas, various tariffs, strict standards and sanitary standards for imported raw materials.
When considering areas belonging to the periphery of the world economy, one can still observe the lack of funds allocated for the development of agriculture in these states, the prevalence of outdated production methods, which ultimately makes it impossible to give impetus to the development of agriculture and the effective development of available resources.
The superiority of developed countries over developing countries in the field of food production continues to be maintained largely through government subsidies, a prime example of this is the policy of the United States. Given the higher level of development of productive forces in agriculture compared to developing countries, the policy of developed countries in the field of subsidizing the agro-industrial sector slows down all the activities of developing countries to increase the intensity and productivity of their agriculture. Thus, we can say that the refusal of active subsidizing of agriculture by such countries as the United States can help rid the broad masses of the population of the developing world from hunger and malnutrition.
In the modern world, the food problem has acquired a global scale, its solution is associated with the prospects for a rational distribution of production resources among all participants in world economic relations. To date, sufficiently powerful agricultural productive forces have been created, the agro-industrial complex continues to develop, high-yielding, hybrid seeds are actively used (the result of the “green revolution”), and the biotechnological revolution also had a great influence on the development of agro-industrial integration. Taking into account all the achievements of modern science, technology and constantly improving technologies, we can conclude that with the proper use of all the achievements of civilization, this global problem can be solved in the near future.
As it was found in the course of the study, the degree of provision of the country's population with food products is directly related to the level of agricultural and food production within the country, the state policy in the field of its import and the level of consumer demand of the population. Therefore, all these processes were combined into three blocks:
- production, carrying out directly the release of agricultural raw materials and finished food products;
- state, uniting all areas of activity of the state and its federal districts related to providing the population with food;
- socio-economic, reflecting current trends in the quality of life of the population.
The above scheme represents the disparate processes taking place in the economy. The proposed system of processes makes it possible to identify the main elements and determine priority areas for its reform. Since the existing system does not include elements aimed at more complete satisfaction of the population with food products, we propose to restructure it and supplement it with new components (Fig. 1.4).
Production processes. An important condition for providing the population with food is the satisfaction of the main part of its needs at the expense of domestic production. The main role in this process is assigned to the agro-industrial complex. Agriculture is not only the largest supplier of products for 60 other industries, but also significantly affects the level of employment in the country, since each of its employees creates conditions for the employment of another 5 people in other industries.
It is well known that the quality of the products made from it depends on the quality of the raw materials. Improving the quality management system will not only improve the quality of agricultural products, but also produce competitive food products of an expanded range. The optimal level of agricultural production, food and processing industries should be established on the basis of a rational level of food consumption, identification of the needs of the country's population for them, the requirements of the market sphere, determined on commodity exchanges.
Managers of agribusiness enterprises should make extensive use of network marketing, which provides various groups and categories of the population with the necessary food products, which causes the need to develop product distribution channels and market infrastructure.
