Last week it became known that every 50th resident of Yekaterinburg is infected with HIV. Today, the Ministry of Health officially announced that an increased level of spread of the disease is observed in 10 regions, including the Sverdlovsk region. Life found out which regions of the country are most likely to become infected with a deadly disease.
On November 2, the first deputy head of the Health Department of the Yekaterinburg city administration, Tatyana Savinova, announced a pandemic of the immunodeficiency virus in the Ural capital. According to her, the disease is firmly rooted in all segments of the city’s population and the spread of the disease no longer depends on risk groups. In total, 26,693 cases of HIV infection have been registered in Yekaterinburg, but this includes only officially known cases, so the real incidence is much higher.
Later, the city health department provided information about the epidemic, and made a refutation itself Savinova. According to her, on P At the press conference, journalists asked her a question about the situation in Yekaterinburg. And in response she simply " voiced the data broadcast in the media."
Of course, for us doctors, this has been an HIV epidemic for a long time, since many people are sick in Yekaterinburg,” the official said. - This did not happen yesterday, and nothing was officially announced.
Today, the head of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Veronika Skvortsova, said that an increased level of spread of HIV has been recorded in 10 regions Russia.
In our country, 57% of all sources of HIV infection are through injection, usually from heroin addicts,” she added.
Meanwhile, according to experts, it is really high time to declare the epidemic officially, and on a nationwide scale.
The epidemic is spreading throughout the country, and only one administrator (the administration of one region) had the courage. - Approx. ed.) admit it. There is unevenness: the population of cities is more affected. And where the urban population is higher than the rural population, the percentage of those affected is higher. These are the Volga region, the Urals, Siberia. These are signs of a general epidemic that we have going on,” he told Life Director of the Federal Methodological Center for the Prevention and Control of AIDS, Deputy Director of the Central Institute of Epidemiology Vadim Pokrovsky.
To prove this, the head of the center cited numbers.
Now 1% of our population is infected with HIV, and in the age group 30-40 years old - 2.5%. Every day we register a total of 270 new cases of HIV infection throughout the country, and 50-60 people die from AIDS every day. What else is needed to talk about an epidemic? - Pokrovsky wondered.
In Yekaterinburg, not even the most bad situation with HIV. Every 50th city resident (2% of the population) is infected there. But in Togliatti (Samara region), as r said Head of the Federal Scientific and Methodological Center for the Prevention and Control of AIDS Vadim Pokrovsky,Already 3% of the population is HIV positive.
On the Life map you can find your region and see how many sick people there are among your fellow countrymen.
Proportion of HIV-infected people from the total number of residents of the region
As you can see, the epidemic has hit Russia unevenly. Half of all infected people live in 20 of 85 regions. The worst situation is in the Irkutsk and Samara regions (1.8% of residents are infected with HIV). In third place is the Sverdlovsk region, the capital of which is Yekaterinburg (1.7% of residents are infected with HIV).
Slightly fewer people are infected in the Orenburg region (1.4%), Leningrad region (1.3%), and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (1.3%).
And here are the statistics on the mortality of HIV-infected people by region (data from the Federal AIDS Center dated 2014; there are no more recent statistics yet).
Pokrovsky explained why HIV “chose” these particular regions:
These are regions where drug trafficking took place, for example, the Orenburg region. As well as financially prosperous parts of the country, where it was easier to sell drugs (Irkutsk and Sverdlovsk regions).
The mayor of Yekaterinburg, Evgeny Roizman, also said that the majority of HIV-positive people became infected due to drugs.
“I started talking about this in 1999,” he noted. - Of those drug addicts who passed through my hands, the guys were heroin addicts, 40% of them were HIV-infected. The girls are heroin addicts, if they don’t have HIV infection, it was an event. Moreover, they were all, as a rule, also prostitutes. Then, when what was called the crocodile started, everyone was there with HIV infection. They could buy disposable syringes, but were collected from the same bowl. Now there is a sexual spread. Indeed, we are ahead of all of Russia. In the Sverdlovsk region worse situation than in Yekaterinburg. Ahead of all of Russia - this was due to drug addiction,” said Evgeniy Roizman.
Now we need to treat a little more than 800 thousand HIV-infected people. 220 thousand have died, and, according to estimates, another 500 thousand have not yet been diagnosed,” Pokrovsky noted.
Previously Pokrovsky, which is bad with prevention.
There are no strategic programs to combat AIDS in the regions, says Vadim Pokrovsky. - As a result, they will print and hang several posters and leaflets. This is where prevention ends.
It turns out to be a vicious circle.
People don’t even suspect how difficult the situation with HIV is in Russia, notes Vadim Pokrovsky. - Information is the main method of combating the spread of the disease. In addition, this also saves costs, because the fewer people who become infected, the fewer will have to be treated later.
At the beginning of 2017, the total number of cases of HIV infection among Russian citizens reached 1,114,815 people ( in the world - 36.7 million HIV-infected people, incl. 2.1 million CHILDREN). Of these died various reasons(not only from AIDS, but from all causes) 243,863 HIV-infected (according to the Rospotrebnadzor monitoring form “Information on measures for the prevention of HIV infection, hepatitis B and C, identification and treatment of HIV patients”). In December 2016, 870,952 Russians were living with a diagnosis of HIV infection.
As of July 1, 2017, the number of HIV-infected people in Russia amounted to 1,167,581 people, of which 259,156 people died for various reasons (in the first half of 2017, 14,631 HIV-infected people had already died, which is 13.6% more, than in 6 months of 2016). The rate of HIV infection among the population of the Russian Federation in 2017 was 795.3 people infected with HIV per 100 thousand of the population of Russia.
In terms of the growth rate of HIV infection, Russia has taken 3rd place after the Republic of South Africa and Nigeria.* (V.V. Pokrovsky).
Tyumen region(150.5% 000 - 2,224 people - 1.1% of the population), in the first half of 2017, 1,019 new cases of HIV infection were identified in the Tyumen region (an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period last year year, then 891 HIV-infected people were registered), incl. 3 teenagers. The Tyumen region is one of the regions where HIV infection is recognized as an epidemic.
Kemerovo region |
6217 |
228,8 |
Irkutsk region |
3951 |
163,6 |
Samara Region |
5189 |
161,5 |
Sverdlovsk region |
6790 |
156,9 |
Chelyabinsk region |
5394 |
154,0 |
Tyumen region |
2224 |
150,5 |
Tomsk |
1489 |
138,0 |
Novosibirsk |
3786 |
137,1 |
Krasnoyarsk |
3716 |
129,5 |
Permian |
3294 |
125,1 |
Altaic |
2721 |
114,1 |
KHMAO |
2010 |
124,7 |
Orenburgskaya |
2340 |
117,6 |
Omsk |
2176 |
110,3 |
Kurganskaya |
958 |
110,1 |
Ulyanovskaya |
1218 |
97,2 |
Tverskaya |
973 |
74,0 |
Nizhny Novgorod |
2309 |
71,1 |
Republic of Crimea |
1943 |
83,0 |
Khakassia |
445 |
82,7 |
Udmurtia |
1139 |
75,1 |
Bashkortostan |
2778 |
68,3 |
Ekaterinburg |
5874 |
406,7 |
Irkutsk |
2450 |
393,0 |
Kemerovo |
1876 |
339,2 |
Novosibirsk |
3213 |
202,8 |
Samara |
1201 |
102,6 |
Moscow |
7672 |
62,2 |
The most significant growth (rate, growth rate of new HIV cases per unit time) of incidence in 2016 was observed in the Republic of Crimea, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Kamchatka Territory, Belgorod, Yaroslavl, Arkhangelsk regions, Sevastopol, Chuvash, Kabardino-Balkarian Republics, Stavropol region, Astrakhan region, Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Samara Region and Jewish Autonomous Okrug.
A high incidence of HIV infection (more than 0.5% of the entire population) was registered in the 30 largest and predominantly economically successful regions, where 45.3% of the country’s population lived.
Sverdlovsk region(1,647.9% of 000 people living with HIV are registered per 100 thousand population - 71,354 people. In 2017, there are already about 86 thousand people infected with HIV), including in the city of Yekaterinburg more than 27,131 HIV-infected people are registered, i.e. . Every 50th city resident is infected with HIV - this is a real epidemic. Serov (1454.2% 000 - 1556 people). 1.5 percent of the population of the city of Serov is infected with HIV.
Sverdlovsk region |
1647,9 |
71354 |
Irkutsk region |
1636,0 |
39473 |
Kemerovo region |
1582,5 |
43000 |
Samara Region |
1476,9 |
47350 |
Orenburg region |
1217,0 |
24276 |
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug |
1201,7 |
19550 |
Leningrad region |
1147,3 |
20410 |
Tyumen region |
1085,4 |
19768 |
Chelyabinsk region |
1079,6 |
37794 |
Novosibirsk region |
1021,9 |
28227 |
Perm region |
950,1 |
25030 |
Ulyanovsk region |
932,5 |
11728 |
Republic of Crimea |
891,4 |
17000 |
Altai region |
852,8 |
20268 |
Krasnoyarsk region |
836,4 |
23970 |
Kurgan region |
744,8 |
6419 |
Tver region |
737,5 |
9622 |
Tomsk region |
727,4 |
7832 |
Ivanovo region |
722,5 |
7440 |
Omsk region |
644,0 |
12741 |
Murmansk region |
638,2 |
4864 |
Moscow region |
629,3 |
46056 |
Kaliningrad region |
608,4 |
5941 |
According to preliminary data greatest number HIV-infected adolescents (15-17 years old) were registered in 2016 in the Kemerovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk, Orenburg, Samara regions, Altai, Perm, Krasnoyarsk territories and the Republic of Bashkortostan. The main cause of HIV infection among adolescents is unprotected sex with HIV-infected partner (77% of cases among girls, 61% among boys).
The highest annual mortality rate was recorded in the Jewish autonomous region, Republic of Mordovia, Kemerovo Region, Republic of Bashkortostan, Ulyanovsk Region, Republic of Adygea, Tambov Region, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Chuvash Republic, Samara Region, Primorsky Territory, Tula Region, Krasnodar, Perm Territories, Kurgan Region.
According to preliminary data, among HIV-positive people newly identified in 2016 with established risk factors for infection, 48.8% became infected through drug use with nonsterile equipment, 48.7% through heterosexual contact, 1.5% through homosexual contact, 0.45 % - were children infected - from mothers during pregnancy, childbirth and during breastfeeding.
Radical actions by the Russian Government are required to stop trafficking, the spread of drugs and, most difficult, changes in the sexual behavior of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation (scraps are wonderful, but the number of people practicing abstinence and practicing with one heterosexual sexual partner throughout their lives is a small number and it is impossible to change, p .e. the development of medicinal methods of pre-exposure prophylaxis is required with minimal side effects(take a pill and do what you want)).
HIV infection in the world is one of the most progressive sexually transmitted diseases. It is also worth noting that AIDS statistics in the world, as a rule, absolutely do not correspond to the true picture of the spread of the disease, since research methods are based only on patients who are served in medical institutions. At the same time, most carriers of the infection and patients do not even suspect they are infected due to reluctance or inability to see a doctor.
Another factor contributing to the concealment of true information about the spread of AIDS in the world is the fear politicians and doctors will be to blame for the inability to contain the avalanche of infection that is rapidly moving towards humanity.
The number of HIV-infected people in the world is growing exponentially. First of all, this is due to the fact that the problem of AIDS in the world does not lend itself to the basic rules of combating infectious diseases, which are based on the exclusion of one of the components of the epidemiological process:
In countries around the world, HIV has long become the number one problem. For every infection to spread, there needs to be a source, a transmission route that ensures the virus reaches a susceptible population. In the case of HIV, there is no way to act on any of the three components that contribute to the spread of the disease. A huge problem is that most people become infected from carriers of the virus who are in the so-called “serological window”, when a person is already infected, but tests are still negative. It has not been possible to exclude the latter factor for many decades, since the invention of a vaccine against immunodeficiency has been postponed indefinitely due to insufficient knowledge, research and technical capabilities.
Taking into account the above, HIV statistics in the world will worsen every year, since many people on the planet underestimate the danger of the immunodeficiency virus. The current HIV epidemic situation in the world can only be influenced by the awareness of the population and support for the fight against AIDS at the state level.
Only by the end of the eighties, the statistics of HIV-infected people in the world reached levels that shocked the world community. In 142 countries, the World Health Organization has identified more than 120 thousand people with AIDS and more than 100 thousand infected with the retrovirus. The real prevalence of HIV in the world is much higher than these data, since there is always a percentage of the population that is not registered in medical institutions and therefore cannot be taken into account in statistical indicators. There are also carriers who are not even aware of their infection. The AIDS epidemic in the world mainly affects people of reproductive age. This leads to a significant loss of the working population, a decrease in the birth rate of healthy children and, accordingly, a decrease in the health indicators of all layers of humanity.
The question that interests many is how many people have AIDS in the world today? The first place in the world for HIV is occupied by the countries of southern Africa, India, Russia, the USA and Latin America. In these states, infected people make up approximately 15% of the total population. Every year the number of HIV-infected people in countries around the world increases by 5-10 million. Thus, at the beginning of the 21st century, the number of AIDS patients in the world amounted to more than 60 million. The countries of southern Africa occupy the first place in the world community in terms of AIDS. Due to the unstable economic situation, the possibility of treating and identifying HIV-infected people is very difficult. This leads to the rapid and rapid spread of immunodeficiency among people. The disease progresses very quickly to stage 4 - AIDS.
Countries in which the incidence of immunodeficiency is rapidly increasing:
The ways in which AIDS spreads in countries around the world to some extent depend on the economic situation in the state and its policy towards HIV-infected people. There are such features:
The Ural Federal District ranks first in terms of HIV in the Russian Federation. It has about 800 patients registered per 100 thousand population, which is a very high figure. Over the past 15 years in Russia, cases of detection of immunodeficiency in pregnant women have increased by 15%. At the same time, such women are registered at a later stage, which leads to intrauterine infection of the fetus due to the lack of necessary treatment in the early stages of embryo formation. Also, the Siberian Federal District claims first place in AIDS in Russia, where about 600 infected people are registered per 100 thousand population, most of them have last stage development of the disease, that is, AIDS.
Nowadays, the task of creating a vaccine against a retrovirus is in the first place for scientists. There is now a huge amount of research work in the field of molecular microbiology, which undoubtedly brings humanity closer to the creation of a vaccine against AIDS. Despite this, there are a number of factors that prevent the possibility of obtaining such a drug:
Due to the fact that the spread of HIV in the world is growing every year, many patients simply do not have time to wait for a vaccine. Therefore, the main way to combat this disease should be aimed at preventive actions. All HIV-infected people in the world receive free treatment, which provides them with maximum comfortable life. With adequate and competent therapy, patients can live a full and long life. HIV treatment around the world is carried out in regional AIDS centers according to uniform standards and provides for an individual approach to any patient, selection of a regimen depending on the stage of progression of the pathology. The main principle of providing medical care is maximum confidentiality.
AIDS is constantly spreading among the world's population, but it is not yet possible to cure it completely. Therefore, it is worth directing maximum efforts to prevent such a dangerous pathology.
HIV statistics in the worldhelps track how many suffer from this disease and search for more effective ways fight him.
HIV infection is a disease caused by the immunodeficiency virus. The disease belongs to the category of slowly progressing. It affects the immune system, as a result of which it develops. The body loses its defenses and ability to resist diseases.
How long do people live with the immunodeficiency virus? StatisticsHIV shows that the average age is no more than 11 years. In the AIDS stage – 9 months. If the patient consults doctors in a timely manner and undergoes antiviral therapy, the life expectancy may be 70–80 years.
The patient's health status also matters. A healthy person has a better chance of living a long life and successful implementation therapy.
The virus is transmitted through single contact of damaged skin or mucous membrane with the patient’s biological fluids: blood, semen, vaginal secretions. Transmission of infection occurs:
The virus cannot be transmitted through tears, saliva, insect bites, household or airborne transmission.
Cause of infection | Prevalence (%) | Incidence (%) | Number of cases per 100 thousand people |
through injections | 45 | 23,18 | 12 977 |
Sexual relations with drug addicts | 8 | 5,15 | 3601 |
Prostitution | 9 | 3,23 | 905 |
Using the services of prostitutes | 4 | 4,07 | 91 |
Homosexual relationships | 5 | 13,17 | 983 |
Injections in a medical facility | 1,1 | 0,58 | 1 |
Blood transfusion | 1,1 | 0,22 | 49 |
People who inject drugs are most at risk.
Cases of illness among health workers were also recorded. HIV statistics show that the risk of infection in this category of the population is also high. In the United States alone, over the past few years, more than a hundred cases have been reported, 57 of which have been proven.
According to the Ministry of Health, HIV statistics in our country are shocking. There is a real epidemic in Russia. In terms of growth rates in the number of sick people, the Russian Federation will soon approach those of Africa. Statistics on HIV infection in Russia allow us to conclude that 57% of infections occur among heroin addicts through dirty syringes.
WITH HIV statistics by yearreflects the number of people who died from AIDS and are still living with the immunodeficiency virus:
Year | Got sick in a year | Revealed for all time | Died | Living with HIV |
1995 | 203 | 1 090 | 407 | 683 |
2000 | 59 161 | 89 808 | 3 452 | 86 356 |
2005 | 38 021 | 334 066 | 7 395 | 326 671 |
2013 | 79 421 | 798 866 | 153 221 | 645 645 |
2016 | 87 670 | 1 081 876 | 233 152 | 848 724 |
First quarter of 2017 | 21 274 | 1 103 150 | No data | 869 998 |
Regional HIV incidence statistics are off the charts where the largest drug distribution channels are located. The majority of sick citizens in 2016 were in the Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Sverdlovsk and Samara regions. There are at least 1.5 thousand sick people here for every 100,000 people.
The diagram shows HIV statistics by region, showing the 10 regions with the highest a large number sick.
HIV statistics in Russia show that the most people infected are in the Irkutsk region. In addition to those listed in the diagram, the most affected include the Moscow, Tomsk, Ivanovo, Omsk, Murmansk regions, Altai region. This also includes St. Petersburg.
From HIV shows an increase in indicators. In 2015, 212,578 patients died. This figure is 12.9% higher than the previous year.
The number of HIV patients in Tatarstan has also increased. Statistics say that in 2015, about 18 thousand patients diagnosed with HIV were identified here. Every year the number of infected people increases by 1 thousand people. The mortality rate among those infected with the immunodeficiency virus has also increased. More infected children were also born.
Most carriers of the virus are people aged 20 to 39 years. The main cause of infection is injection of narcotic substances with dirty syringes.
Russian HIV allows us to conclude that the largest number of cases are between the ages of 30 and 39 years. The vast majority are men. Women are most often infected under the age of 35. At the same time, the number of sick teenagers and 15 to 20 year olds has decreased. The data is shown in detail in percentages on the chart:
IN Soviet time Unprotected sex with African students ranked first. Today, statistics of people infected with HIV indicate that the largest number of sick people are among drug addicts - 48.8% of the total number of people infected. They become infected when using unsterile syringes. According to the results of studies by city, the largest number of cases among drug addicts was registered in Moscow (12–14%), St. Petersburg (30%), and Biysk (more than 70%).
The diagram shows statistics of HIV patients, displaying the main causes of infection in the USSR and modern Russia for the period from 1987 to 2016:
HIV statistics in Ukraine also not comforting. In six months of 2016, 7,612 people were diagnosed. Of these, 1,365 are HIV-infected children. Statistics show that the main reason is the reduction in funding for programs to combat AIDS.
In total, there are 287,970 patients in Ukraine today. Between 1987 and 2016, almost 40,000 citizens died from AIDS. Ukraine is among the leaders in the spread of the disease in the world.The chart shows which areas are most affected by HIV:
HIV statistics in Belarusrecorded 17,605 patients as of 2017. The prevalence rate is 185.2 per 100 thousand people. population. In just 2 months of 2017, 431 citizens with the immunodeficiency virus were identified. The majority of HIV-infected people are in the Gomel, Minsk and Brest regions. For the period from 1987 to 2017. 5,044 people died of AIDS in Belarus.
In 2016, HIV statistics in Kazakhstan indicate an increase in the number of infected people. During this year, about 3 thousand carriers of the virus were identified, of which 33 patients were children under 14 years of age.
As HIV statistics show in Russia and the CIS countries, the epidemiological situation continues to worsen. Morbidity and mortality rates are very high. It is necessary to strengthen measures to combat the disease in the country, otherwise the rate of spread will continue to grow.
Statistics on HIV incidence and AIDS mortality vary greatly in different countries and continents. The indicators are influenced by the standard of living of the population, economic development, health and social care, youth policy and healthy lifestyle promotion. It would seem that the leaders in immunodeficiency are the backward countries of the third world. However, HIV in the Russian Federation is spreading at a rate that puts Russia in third place in the world ranking in terms of incidence growth rates, behind only South Africa and Nigeria.
HIV statistics in Russia are changing for the worse from year to year. Since 1987, when they first started talking about the terrible diagnosis, and to the present day, the number of cases and mortality has been increasing. The percentage ratios of new cases of immunodeficiency and the population size bring the Russian Federation to a leading position in the lists of countries former USSR and the whole planet. Moreover, the main increase in deplorable statistics did not occur in the 90s; neither a change of government, nor a change in way of thinking, nor an improvement in the quality of life are affected - an increase in the rate of spread of HIV is recorded every year. The mortality index (the number of deaths per 1000 people) has increased 10 times over the past ten years.
According to official data, there are about a million HIV patients in Russia, that is, approximately 0.7% of the country's residents are infected with HIV. According to unofficial information from foreign agencies, the percentage in reality is exactly 2 times higher, and this indicates an epidemic of immunodeficiency in the Russian Federation.
In order not to cause panic and not to take away the first place in AIDS from South Africa and Nigeria, in Russia the statistics are slightly adjusted in the right direction. For example, a person with AIDS dies, but the cause of death is a secondary disease - heart failure or a malignant neoplasm, and the patient was not registered for immunodeficiency. This death does not affect HIV mortality. Also, the data on the total number of cases is not sufficiently accurate - there is no mandatory procedure for testing for HIV. Thousands of people have not contacted medical institutions and don't donate blood. Naturally, if they are infected, Rosstat and Rospotrebnadzor do not know about it. If a person is diagnosed with HIV, but does not undergo an examination and is not registered with an infectious disease specialist, then such a case is also not taken into account - the patients who are actually registered are taken into account. In Russia, most citizens need to be forced and persuaded to go to the hospital and get treatment. Based on the listed cases, the real AIDS incidence figures in the Russian Federation are definitely much higher.
Russia is a large country and, accordingly, statistical data varies by region. The most disadvantaged for HIV last years steel Sverdlovsk, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Samara, Orenburg regions, Perm region, Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous region. These regions have the highest rate of increase in incidence and the highest percentage of HIV-infected people - more than 2% of residents are infected with the retrovirus, with a huge number of infected children and pregnant women (every 50th woman giving birth has immunodeficiency). Of the leading cities in HIV, the geography remains identical to the regional one - Kemerovo, Yekaterinburg, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk.
HIV statistics by age in Russia have not changed for many years - the majority of those infected are young people from 20 to 39 years old, making up approximately 80% of registered patients. Another 10% are aged from 40 to 60 years, 9% are from newborns to 19 years. The latter category of patients is more vulnerable in terms of diagnosis of immunodeficiency. The diagnosis of HIV is accurately established in children from 0 years of age, infected in utero, during childbirth from a sick mother. The remaining children, among whom the peak of injection drug addiction is recorded at the age of 13-17 years, are not tested for the retrovirus and remain unaccounted for.
The UN has named Russia the epicenter of the global epidemic of secondary immunodeficiency. Inaccurate and underestimated statistics on immunodeficiency in the Russian Federation exceeds the scale of the disaster in other countries. For example, in Germany the increase in incidence is three times less than in Russia. And there, HIV is a national problem, which is being fought and funds are allocated from the state budget. The HIV epidemic in Russia is not considered something global and serious, given the absence of a state program to combat AIDS. By the way, in the United States the state wrestling program appeared in the late 1980s.
There are two main reasons for Russia’s leadership in immunodeficiency infection:
African countries, where at some time every second citizen was HIV-infected, were able to suppress the epidemic and began to fight the spread of infection. An economically and socially developed state must even more so recognize and accept the problem. Otherwise, according to experts, in the next 5 years Russia will come out on top in the world in terms of HIV, and the mortality rate from AIDS in the country will increase exponentially.