Meetings after resignation
Alexei Kudrin resigned as finance minister and deputy prime minister in September 2011. Medvedev, at that time former president, gave Kudrin an ultimatum. He suggested that the Minister of Finance leave his post because, during his visit to the United States, Kudrin promised to refuse to work in the Russian government if Medvedev became prime minister in 2012. Kudrin explained his position by differences with the head of state. The minister and the president repeatedly argued about the need to reduce budget spending on army rearmament.
After Kudrin's resignation, three meetings with Medvedev were publicly reported. Kudrin spoke on Twitter about a meeting with Medvedev in December 2012, a year after his resignation. The conversation was informal - “over a cup of green tea,” the ex-minister noted. They also communicated in September and December 2016. The Prime Minister, in particular, discussed with the former Minister of Finance the coordination of medium- and long-term development plans. In fact, there were several more non-public meetings between the prime minister and the ex-minister, two sources familiar with their agenda told RBC.
Public administration issue
Reform government controlled, which will be on the agenda, is one of the strategies that the TsSR was preparing for President Vladimir Putin. For example, the CSR proposals include the creation of a new body - the Center for Public Administration Efficiency. Expenses for the maintenance of the state apparatus, according to the Center for Social Development, should be reduced by half - from the current 2.5% of total budget expenditures to 1.74%. Kudrin proposes to reduce the number of officials by a third in six years. According to him, this will reduce public administration costs by 0.3 percentage points. GDP per year.
According to the calculations of the Center for Social Development, 80% of officials are engaged not in strategic tasks, but in momentary assignments, and not in their profile. Experts proposed changing the structure of state programs, increasing the responsibility of ministers for the implementation of strategic priorities, accelerating the digitalization of processes in the state apparatus, and also creating an “administrative tribunal” - a central body for deregulation to eliminate administrative barriers. The changes, as follows from the Kudrin Center’s program, will also concern incentives for officials. Civil servants, according to the CSR, should receive salaries based on an increased base payment and bonuses based on performance (this should prevent corruption).
There are two scenarios for implementing the CSR proposals, says Daniil Tsygankov, director of the Center for Regulatory Impact Assessment at the Higher School of Economics: “Under the first, the entire design of the proposals will be adopted, which is quite revolutionary - some authorities will change, the approach to rule-making will change, deregulation will be carried out.” In the second option, proposals will be selected that seem feasible and do not encounter severe hardware resistance, notes Tsygankov. In this case, one should not expect “strong changes,” the expert believes.
The implementation of the strategy will be related to the personal composition of the new government, Tsygankov notes. He recalled that in 1999, the economic program was developed by the current head of Sberbank, German Gref, who then became the Minister of Economy - at that moment this was comparable to the current status of Deputy Prime Minister. “And Gref had several years and administrative resources at his disposal to implement at least part of the package of reforms,” the expert emphasized.
New term strategy
Kudrin's meeting with government leadership will take place less than a month before the inauguration of Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 7, followed by the appointment of a new prime minister and possible rotations in the White House.
Photo: Sergey Savostyanov / TASS
If Vladimir Putin needs Kudrin and Medvedev to cooperate with each other, they will do so, despite past tensions, says Oleg Ignatov, deputy director of the Center for Current Political Affairs. “Perhaps some of Kudrin’s ideas will be taken into account when preparing presidential decrees after the inauguration, which will outline the key tasks of the new term, and now Medvedev and Kudrin need to discuss the main details,” the political scientist says.
Kudrin's role will increase in the new political configuration, believes the director of the Center for Economic and political reforms Nikolai Mironov. In his opinion, today Kudrin acts as a remote adviser, and after the inauguration of the president and the appointment of a new government, he may receive a new post or simply expand his influence in determining the country’s economic program. “The authorities need a team to achieve a breakthrough in the economy, and not to implement formal May decrees. This is a working meeting, apparently, these issues will be discussed there,” the political scientist suggested. Kudrin may take up unpopular but necessary reforms to ensure the May decrees, such as raising the retirement age.
Both experts believe that Kudrin could receive the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs if one of Medvedev's current deputies leaves.
The prime minister's participation in a meeting regarding the development strategy may also indicate that he expects to retain the post of head of government, Mironov added. Indeed, a meeting between Medvedev and Kudrin to discuss strategic reforms may be a signal to his entourage and big business that the prime minister is confident in his abilities and is ready to join the new government, agrees political consultant Anton Orlov.
The powers of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in the economic sphere may be transferred to the head of the Center for Strategic Research Alexei Kudrin, writes the Financial Times, citing sources in the Russian government
Related materials
According to the publication's sources, the very appointment of Kudrin to such a post is planned as a signal to the West that Russian President ready to compromise.
“The most likely scenario is that Kudrin will receive a position in the presidential administration. Something like the president’s representative on international economic cooperation,” a government source told the FT.
“Sanctions and a growing international conflict are hampering attempts to revive Russia’s stagnant economy,” the publication writes.
Kudrin may get a position in the presidential administration, becoming the representative of the head of state on international economic cooperation. Another possible scenario is an appointment to the post of Deputy Prime Minister.
If this happens, the West will receive a signal that Putin is ready to compromise, the publication notes. Kudrin’s main task in any position should be to improve relations with the United States and the European Union. At the same time, Dmitry Medvedev is expected to head the government again.
FT's interlocutor in the presidential administration told the publication that negotiations on Kudrin's appointment are still ongoing and, perhaps, he will become deputy prime minister.
“If Kudrin becomes part of the [presidential] administration or government, this may be an indication of readiness for some kind of program of change, including foreign policy, because without changes in foreign policy, reforms in Russia are simply impossible,” explained economist Evgeny Gontmakher, one of the members of the Committee of Civil Initiatives created by Kudrin, to the FT.
Alexey Venediktov, editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow, also wrote about the possibility of the current head of the Central Socialist Socialist Republic transferring to the presidential administration on Telegram. He noted that we're talking about about the post of first deputy head of the presidential administration for economics “with broad powers.”
At the end of April, Medvedev and Kudrin held a meeting, during which they discussed public administration reform and the country's socio-economic development strategy developed by the Center for Strategic Research.
At the same time, Kudrin, speaking in March 2018 at the “Russia - Land of Opportunities” forum, refused to comment on his likely appointment to the government.
The current composition of the Cabinet of Ministers, mainly formed in 2012, will be dissolved after the inauguration of the President of Russia on May 7. The new government should be formed within a few weeks after the head of state takes office.
Photo by city news agency "Moscow"
There are more and more signals that the head of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin may join the new government that President Vladimir Putin will form after the inauguration. He will come there with a ready-made program, the details of which were discussed with the current head of government, Dmitry Medvedev.
Former Finance Minister, head of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin, at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday, conveyed his proposals for a new government composition, which, however, were not announced.
Most likely, the first on this list is Alexey Leonidovich himself, who yesterday in a huge interview with Interfax unequivocally stated that the intellectual headquarters for preparing proposals for the president and the government, which he calls the TsSR, “usually go to high positions.” However, the ex-minister left the question whether he received offers to join the government unanswered. “I don’t comment on this issue,” he said.
According to him, meetings with the head of the cabinet are held regularly. “Several times during the year I met with the prime minister and told him about the results of our work, about the proposals that we make to the president. That is, he is fully aware of all the initiatives that we conveyed to the head of state at all stages since May last year,” said the head of the Center for Social Development.
Yesterday, with the head of the current government, they again discussed the country’s socio-economic development strategy, the provisions of which are expected to form the basis of Vladimir Putin’s new May decree, which everyone is waiting for after the inauguration and the announcement of the new government.
Earlier, the media reported about the preparation of a presidential decree, according to which about 10 trillion rubles will be allocated for infrastructure and the social sphere in the next six years. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that the preparation of the decree is indeed in its final stages, but denied the amount of expenses appearing in publications.
Strategy, full text which Kudrin promised to publish gradually in the coming months, in particular, involves increasing investment in human capital and fixing spending on the social sphere and infrastructure as a percentage of GDP.
From the strategy theses published on April 11 on the CSR website, it follows that by 2024, the life expectancy of Russians will increase by five years, and the average old-age pension will be twice the subsistence level, pensions will increase by no less than a third in real terms; and the poverty level in Russia will drop from the current 14 to 10% and will be on par with the most developed countries in Europe (previously, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection spoke about the need to reduce this indicator by half, to 7%).
From the text about the wonderful life that awaits us, it is now possible to extract specific data about how pensioners will be happy. And due to the fact that thanks to a longer and more healthy life citizens will be able to remain active and in demand longer. “Over the course of 16 years, the retirement age will gradually increase and by 2034 it will reach 63 years for women and 65 years for men. This will give everyone, even in adulthood, the opportunity to realize themselves in a profession and receive a higher income in old age. I worked five years longer and received a pension that was a third higher,” the document joyfully reports.
Business Ombudsman Boris Titov complained about this document that one can subscribe to all the beautiful, correct words about what should be, but it does not explain how. “How can one even comment on a proposal to improve the world, the authors of which are in ideal conditions that are not related to reality?” - he said.
Kudrin confirmed yesterday that he is not a supporter of changes in tax rates: “I do not participate in discussions in the government on taxes. But I have a reserved attitude towards issues of any rates, especially the introduction of new taxes. In our proposals, we do not propose changing the personal income tax, and the government’s position is not fully known to me.”
Kudrin called the bill on counter-sanctions against the United States submitted to the State Duma controversial, and the document discussed in parliament on liability for companies that comply with anti-Russian sanctions was hasty and fraught with very serious consequences.
Speaking about the bill on counter-sanctions, which has already been submitted to the lower house of parliament, Kudrin noted: “In the form in which it is presented, it is, of course, very controversial. Apparently, not everything was thought out from the beginning.” According to the ex-minister, it concerns legal entities, in which the American share exceeds 25%. “I must say that in our market there are a lot of very large financial and industrial corporations, in which it accounts for more than 30%. But these are Russian companies. The document’s developers apparently were in a big hurry,” Kudrin suggested.
He noted that Russia is very dependent on imports, including in the field of high technology. “By limiting ourselves in such interaction with the most high-tech, most dynamic, most innovative market, we, of course, will significantly complicate or undermine the work of Russian companies,” Kudrin warned.
The head of the Center for Social Development also recalled that “the financial sector today is also high-tech.” “It uses US software products or platform solutions. Today we do not have our own solutions. And what does it mean? That we will not only not catch up with the developed countries, as the president proposed, but will only deepen the gap from world markets. This must be avoided when preparing the law,” concluded Kudrin.
When asked what place Alexey Kudrin might take in the new government, co-chairman of the Moscow Economic Forum Konstantin Babkin told NG that he hoped that this would not happen at all. “They say that he has ambitions to take the post of head of government. But I wouldn’t let anyone close to the government who was once involved in developing the foundations of the modern economic policy of the Russian Federation.”
“It is unlikely that Kudrin will be given the post of prime minister, there is some probability that he will become deputy prime minister, but then we will most likely have a new chairman of the government. It is unlikely that he will be invited to the post of Minister of Finance, and Kudrin himself has higher ambitions as the developer of a new economic program in the Central Socialist Republic,” the first vice president told NG Russian Union engineers Ivan Andrievsky.
Former head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin was tipped for the post of first deputy prime minister in the new government. However, the position ultimately goes to the current Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. This was the main intrigue during the formation of the Cabinet, since it was Alexei Kudrin who was the author of those reforms that are spelled out in the new “May Decree”. It would be logical if he put them into practice. But, apparently, there is a good reason for Alexey Kudrin to continue to remain in the shadows.
By someone else's hands
There is an old saying, the authorship of which is attributed to the great designer Sergei Korolev: “If you criticize, suggest. When you propose, do it.” She perfectly describes what last years is engaged Alexey Kudrin and what he doesn't do. Former minister Finance, as you know, likes to criticize the Russian economy for its backwardness, for the fact that structural reforms are not being carried out, for the fact that our retirement age is too low, and so on. Following the logic of the saying, he must offer something. And he really proposes, through his Center for Strategic Research, a strategy for the country's development. Apparently, it spells out the measures that Russia needs to get into a bright economic and social future. We say “apparently” because Kudrin has not yet shown his strategy to the public. Well, okay, let's not be offended and take the economic guru at his word.
Moreover, it was Alexey Leonidovich’s proposals (he himself admitted this) lay down the basis of the President's March address to the Federal Assembly. And now they have resulted in a new “May decree”, which the Kremlin published immediately after the inauguration of the head of state. The document only sets out the tasks that need to be accomplished: becoming one of the world’s leading economies, fighting poverty, introducing new technologies, developing Agriculture, medicine, education and so on. The government will think and decide how to achieve all this; it has been given until October. It was expected that it would be Alexei Kudrin in the new cabinet who would begin to put all this into practice. In the media leaks got in, that he will become the first deputy prime minister, and the person in this position is responsible for socio-economic development. But the post was offered to Kudrin’s successor as head of the Ministry of Finance - Anton Siluanov. That is, it is he who will be responsible for the progress of reforms. So there are no problems with criticism and suggestions from Alexei Kudrin, but with “do” everything is much more complicated. And there are two main versions about this.
Sworn friends
Alexey Kudrin left the government 7 years ago. Was the President then Dmitry Medvedev, the government was headed Vladimir Putin. Kudrin allowed himself something absolutely inappropriate for a high-ranking official: he gave an interview in the United States, where he stated that he would not work in the new government (at that time it was already clear that it would be headed by Medvedev) because he did not agree with economic policy, in particular with growth military expenses. After this, an epic meeting took place, at which Dmitry Anatolyevich harshly offered the Minister of Finance to leave his post. Alexey Kudrin then said in a quiet voice that he would first consult with the Prime Minister, to which he received the answer that he could consult with anyone, but Medvedev was the president for now. And since then, Alexey Kudrin has not worked in the government.
Of course, all these years he did not sit idle. The former official regularly gave large and intelligent interviews, spoke at every major economic forum and not only in Russia. As before, he regularly came to the forum in Davos, where the entire world elite gathers, and there he also spoke, gave interviews, and so on. He talked about the same thing: Russia needs structural reforms. True, there were also annoying moments when the expert community made a “childish” economic mistake in its article. But let's not quibble. The year before, Alexey Kudrin headed the Center for Strategic Research ( TsSR), who is developing reforms. And how recently stated Kudrin, he now regularly meets with his old opponent Dmitry Medvedev. Does this mean that differences are forgotten? Hardly. That is, it is quite possible that they have made peace, but this does not mean at all that Kudrin will organize Russia under the leadership of Medvedev, who remains as prime minister. There was speculation that Kudrin himself would head the government, and supposedly this was the only position that would suit him. There were suggestions that he would be made deputy prime minister, reporting directly to the president, and not to the head of the cabinet. But all this did not come true. And there is this version: in order to avoid intra-elite wars involving Medvedev and Kudrin, they decided not to hire the latter to work in the Cabinet. It may well be. But there is another hypothesis.
I warned you!
Let's take a short excursion into recent history. 18 years ago, “Strategy 2010” was written, which was also supposed to plunge us into a bright future. It was written in the same TsSR, and the main authors... are still the same Alexey Kudrin and German Gref. They went to work in the government to implement their reforms: Gref headed the Ministry of Economy, and Kudrin headed the Ministry of Finance. The year 2010 has arrived, and strategists recognized- everything they planned was only a third completed. No, the country’s GDP has almost doubled, as they planned, but this is due not to officials, but to extremely high oil prices. Most of the reforms remained on paper. German Gref then uttered an excellent phrase: the consequence of the reforms was that good reformers appeared. Thanks for that too.
Now Alexei Kudrin had a second chance to become a great transformer and, apparently, all the doors were open for him. But one gets the feeling that Alexei Leonidovich is not quite to his liking for this role. What if nothing works out again? And then, instead of the halo of glory, there is the stigma of failure. It's better to be " eminence grise"and do everything with other hands. Anton Siluanov is a person close to Kudrin, Tatiana Golikova, which is a social block, is also considered a member of his team. So let them do everything under strict guidance. And if the reforms fail again, then let them be responsible. And Kudrin will remain “in white.” And if someone later reproaches him for something, then you can always find the right words. I allegedly advised that such and such should be done, I supposedly warned that this should not be done, but they did not listen. Well, it happens. It's a win-win position. Nothing will work out - Kudrin is not to blame. Everything will work out – thanks to the author of the reforms. Do you know what it looks like? Reluctance to take responsibility for what happens to the economy entrusted to you is political infantilism. This is what children sometimes do because they are afraid that their strict mother will put them in a corner.
However, there is still the possibility of sincerely hoping that this theory still has no basis. Moreover, as residents of the country, we dream that everything that Alexey Kudrin has planned will come true. And we sincerely wish Alexey Leonidovich success in his difficult journey.
