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Customer of the study:
A private trade and production unitary enterprise focused on supplying construction projects: DOORS, GATES, WINDOWS, METAL PRODUCTS, etc.
We supply our products to all regions of the Republic of Belarus and nearby regions of Russia. Has its own production and being official distributors a number of manufacturing companies.
Geography: Central Federal District of the Russian Federation
Subject of research: Wooden and metal doors
Segments under study*:
1. Apartment metal security doors
a. with a decorative pattern on metal
b. with decorative grilles
c. with vinyl leather trim
d. with laminated fiberboard finishing
e. With MDF finishing PVC
f. MDF veneered
2. Technical metal security doors
3. Fire and smoke doors and hatches with fire resistance degree EI-30, EI-60
4. Fiberboard doors
5. MDF doors
6. Veneered doors
7. Wooden doors lined with plastic
a. Without details for each segment
Research objectives: Entering the Russian market
Research objectives:
a. Determining the optimal price
b. Search for potential buyers
The information base for the study was data from expert surveys of manufacturers, dealers, and other industry players, a database of media publications, results of completed studies, materials from industry institutions, materials from market participants, Megaresearch databases, as well as open access resources.
In the process of collecting data during interviews, methods of a legendary survey (mystery shopping method) and monitoring of documentary sources were used.
Data analysis methods were content analysis and extrapolative modeling.
This project is individually finalized in accordance with the client’s wishes. Study completion time: 10 working days.
Logic and methodology of the study:
Most effective method Research of this market is a combination of the desk method and subsequent verification of the data obtained through qualitative and quantitative research.
In this regard, the Contractor offers the Customer the following scheme of stage-by-stage marketing research and work. After each stage, the Customer, together with the Contractor, is asked to evaluate the sufficiency of the data obtained at the previous stage.
Desk research is carried out with the aim of collecting all secondary market information available in open sources in order to consolidate already known information about the market being studied, as well as to create the necessary information basis for the further development of qualitative research tools.
1. Methodological comments on the study
2. Overview of the market for wooden and metal doors in the Russian Federation
2.1. general information by market:
2.1.1. Main characteristics of the market
2.1.2. Volume and capacity of the Russian market
2.2. Assessment of current trends and market development prospects
2.3. Assessment of factors influencing the market
2.4. Structure of the Russian market for wooden and metal doors:
2.4.1. Market structure by product range
2.4.2. Market structure by manufacturers, assessment of the share of imported goods
3. Analysis of foreign trade supplies of wooden and metal doors to the Russian Federation for 2011.
3.1. Volume and dynamics of export/import
3.2. Export/import balance for 2011
4. Analysis of the production of wooden and metal doors in the Russian Federation
4.1. Volume and dynamics of production in 2011-2012.
4.2. Segmentation of production (by type of product, region, etc.)
5. Competitive analysis: the largest manufacturers/distributors of wooden and metal doors in the Russian Federation
5.2. Range of competitors technical specifications(brand, model)
5.3. Sales channels of competing companies
5.4. Analysis pricing policy competitors
5.5. Determining the optimal price for the customer’s products
5.6. Assessing the position of the customer’s company in the market
5.7. Profiles of the main players
6. Analysis of consumers of wooden and metal doors in the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation
6.1. Market structure by type of consumer
6.3. Description of consumer preferences
6.4. Criteria for selecting a supplier from major consumers
6.5. Identification of the most promising consumer groups
7.1. Legislative regulation and government programs
7.2. Development of a strategy for entering the Russian market
7.3. Conclusions from the study
8.APPLICATIONS
8.1. Macroeconomic indicators
8.3. Main indicators of industrial production
8.5. Russia and the WTO
8.6. Inflation
8.7. Related markets
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Buyers are more likely to be men who visit the showrooms of future door suppliers, study catalogs, select models, negotiate the terms of the transaction and then pay, but they almost always consult with their own spouses to make the final decision, whom they bring to the ones they like the most outlets. Modern women most often make decisions on their own, but the number of female buyers is limited: approximately 20-25%.
Many buyers often do not have a very clear idea of the features at the very beginning of their searches. different doors and, above all, pay attention to general form door and its price, without understanding other criteria by which doors are selected. Only after visiting a fair number of salons or talking with friends who have solved the door problem, buyers begin to orient themselves in the quality and design of doors, and then the issue of price-quality ratio becomes decisive. Therefore, buyers first trust their own opinion, and then the opinion of more experienced friends or professional consultants.
It should be noted that the most sophisticated buyers widely use specialized publications and the Internet to search for products and their characteristics. There, most often, they find more or less professional judgments and guidance on the range of goods.
Developers' main requirement for interior doors is low cost, so as not to increase the cost of 1 sq. m. m of housing. In addition, the following requirements apply:
Modern design;
High and stable quality of doors;
Delivery time;
Delivery conditions.
Based on the results of an expert survey of developers in St. Petersburg, it was found that interior doors are purchased by construction companies both from dealers and directly from manufacturers.
A comparative description of the requirements for interior doors by private individuals and developer companies is given in Table. I.1.12.
Table I.1.12 Characteristics of the requirements for interior doorshpersonal categories of consumers
According to earlier forecasts (Table I.1.3), the capacity of the door market in the period under study tends to increase, which is due to an increase in the volume of housing construction.
Product shares in markets Russian Federation, Moscow and St. Petersburg are currently distributed as follows (Table I.1.5 and Fig. I.1.3, I.1.5, I.1.7).
The forecast for the distribution of product shares is presented in Fig. I.1.4, I.1.6, I.1.8
Rice. I.1.3. Distribution of shares interior doors in the Russian Federation by price segments in 2003. Fig. I.1.4. Distribution of shares of interior doors in the Russian Federation by price segments in 2007 (forecast).
Rice. I.1.5. Distribution of shares of interior doors in Moscow by price segments in 2003. Fig. I.1.6. Distribution of shares of interior doors in Moscow by price segments in 2007 (forecast).
Rice. I.1.7. Distribution of shares of interior doors in St. Petersburg by price segments in 2003. Fig. I.1.8. Distribution of shares of interior doors in St. Petersburg by price segments in 2007 (forecast).
A survey of employees of companies involved in the production and sale of interior doors shows that the distribution of interior doors by price segment has changed slightly over the past three years. At the same time, the share of products in the price segments up to $50 and $50-100 decreased, and in the price segments $100-150 and $150-200 increased. Based on the general trends in the development of the economy of the Russian Federation (sustainable economic growth, increasing solvency of the population, favorable foreign policy factors), it is assumed that this trend will continue in the next three years.
In our country, any business, including door business, significantly depends on the general economic situation, the welfare of citizens, and various government (tax and customs) decrees.
In Russia, neither producers nor consumers can be confident in their capabilities. In general, the situation with previous years is as follows: there are more manufacturers and sellers of interior doors, but they have begun to earn less due to increased competition in this market. This trend is intensifying in last years. The time of easy income, when the seller was forgiven a lot (low professionalism, flexible prices, additional services and much more), is long gone.
The factors and risks that determine the historical and future trends in the development of the interior doors market are:
1. Changes in the political situation, legislation, tax andRtive regulation, which influence the financial and economic activities and profitability of the company’s operations. The nature and frequency of such changes and the risks associated with them are difficult to predict, as is their impact on the future activities and profitability of the company's operations.
2. Changes in the volume of housing construction. Since currently the main consumer of interior doors is housing construction, an increase or decrease in the volume of housing construction will cause a corresponding increase or decrease in the need for interior doors.
3. Change in solvency individuals, caused by various macroeconomic factors in the Russian Federation, and, consequently, a possible redistribution of price segments of interior doors. Currently, the economic situation in the country is stable, and private incomes are growing. Consequently, the demand for interior doors will move to the segment of more expensive doors.
4. Changes in the legislative framework regulating the production ofOduction. Since 2003, the Law of the Russian Federation “On Technical Regulation” came into force, in which mandatory technical regulations. Standards from state ones are transferred to the category of national ones and will be harmonized with international standards. Mandatory and voluntary certification are being introduced. These events are being carried out in preparation for Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization. These events may affect the cost of interior doors and the redistribution of market segments.
5. Risks associated with changes in tariff policy for heat and electricity, water supply and sanitation services, which can negatively affect the cost of interior doors. Consequently, reducing the energy component in the cost of production will allow the manufacturer to set attractive selling prices for consumers.
The degree of influence of these factors and risks on the interior door market is given in Table. I.1.13. The data indicated in the table was obtained during a survey of 11 representatives of companies engaged in the production of interior doors.
Table I.1.13 The degree of influence of factors and risks on the interior door market
The most influential factor on the interior door market is the volume of housing construction. In addition, it is necessary to take into account that with an increase in the volume of housing construction there is also an increase in the volume of public, administrative and industrial construction. The next most important factor in changing the ratio of domestic consumption/import into the region is interior doors. The third most important is the change in the solvency of the population.
When assessing the impact of a decrease in housing construction, it was taken into account that this scenario could occur under certain force majeure circumstances (for example, default in August 1998). However, even so, in 1998, 1999 and 2000, the decline in construction volumes was insignificant (see Figure I.1.1). Therefore, the probability of this event occurring is low. However, if this event comes true, it will significantly affect the reduction in the capacity of the interior door market, both in physical terms and in value terms.
When assessing the impact of the risk of a decrease in the solvency of individuals, it was taken into account that this event could occur in the event of a default (as in 1998) or an increase in energy prices and their achievement of the level of world prices. At the same time, there will be a redistribution of price segments towards the preferences of low-cost interior doors. At the same time, the market capacity in physical terms will remain the same. However, if the solvency of individuals increases, the market capacity in monetary terms will increase, as the segment of more expensive doors will expand. If the solvency of individuals decreases, the market capacity in monetary terms will decrease, since the segment of expensive doors will narrow and the segment of cheap ones will expand.
When assessing the impact of changes in the domestic production/import ratio, the likelihood of Russia joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the possibility of increasing the share of imports of interior doors were taken into account. The latter circumstance is explained by the fact that domestic manufacturers will be forced to follow the rules, norms and standards adopted by this organization, which will cause an increase in the cost of doors. Also an increase in the share foreign manufacturers will necessitate product certification, which can significantly increase the cost of doors. This circumstance will cause an increase in marketing costs. In this case, at the same cost, foreign interior doors will have more high level quality, and with a high degree of probability the consumer will prefer imported doors. In addition, the increase in cost will lead to the filling of the cheapest price segments with the products of small manufacturing workshops, or large enterprises will have to change production technology in order to reduce the cost of doors.
The main actions taken by the company to reduce risks are:
1. Carrying out work to conclude long-term contracts for the supply of manufactured products;
2. Expansion of sales markets in order to diversify the sales structure;
3. Carrying out an active investment policy in order to update the production base and qualitatively improve the capacity structure;
4. Increasing the operational efficiency of the company through the implementation of programs to reduce production costs;
5. Achieving synergistic effects (economies of scale, personnel optimization, etc.).
In the course of analyzing the product range of leading manufacturers of interior doors in Russia. Additional information about domestic and foreign manufacturers, see Appendix 1, it was found that most of them produce both solid smooth and solid paneled doors (veneered, painted, laminated). In addition, these models are produced with glazing.
Considering the fact that most of the leading manufacturers of interior doors have their dealers in many regions of Russia, therefore, all types of doors will be presented in all regions.
In Russian federation: companies “Volkhovets” (Novgorod) - 10% of the market, “Optim” (Kaliningrad region) - 10% of the market, ZDI AMO ZIL (Moscow) - 5% of the market (Fig. I.1.9);
Figure I.1.9 Leading manufacturers of interior doors in the Russian Federation in 2003
In Moscow: manufacturers suppliers- companies “Volkhovets” - 8% of the market, “Optim” - 5% of the market (Fig. I.1.10).
Figure I.1.10 Leading manufacturers and suppliers of interior doors in Moscow in 2003
In St. Petersburg: manufacturers suppliers- companies “Volkhovets” - 10% of the market, “Optim” - 10% of the market, ZDI AMO ZIL - 5% of the market.
Figure I.1.11 Leading manufacturers and suppliers of interior doors in St. Petersburg in 2003
65% of the interior door market in St. Petersburg is occupied by local manufacturers and 35% by out-of-town and foreign manufacturers.
Most companies work to order and only with legal entities.
On average in Moscow, the supply in retail trade is 43.5% formed by Russian-made doors and 56.5% by foreign-made doors.
Some manufacturers of interior doors in St. Petersburg agree that the profitability of production is 30% (obtained during an expert survey of the heads of the sales department of Prestige CJSC (according to him, about 30%) and Daira CJSC (according to him, 30- 35%, closer to 30%)). By expert assessments Currently, production capacity utilization is at the level of 60-70% in the Russian Federation as a whole and 75-85% in St. Petersburg.
In principle, two forms of sales of products of construction industry enterprises can be distinguished - direct deliveries to consumers and work with distributors (dealers). The difference between distributors and dealers is that the former provide not only sales of products, but also their promotion on the market (advertising campaign). . In a number of market sectors, direct connections with consumers are due to technological features products. In other sectors, they are determined by a fairly limited range of clients. However, in most market sectors (where possible long-term storage manufactured products) both complementary sales channels operate. In this case, as a rule, direct connections are made with the largest consumers, and dealers work with small and medium-sized clients. In general, the ratio between direct deliveries and deliveries to dealers is approximately 50% to 50%, which is quite consistent with the Western level (in 1995, only 10% of products passed through dealers, which was explained by the preservation of old ties inherited from the planned economy).
In the pricing policy of manufacturers, two approaches can be distinguished. The first is to sell goods directly at “factory” prices with a minimum trade margin. This policy is aimed at expanding direct connections, attracting as much as possible more customers, including due to their outflow from dealers. However, according to the majority of surveyed managers of construction industry enterprises, it is not economically justified, since, on the one hand, it minimizes the benefits of direct deliveries, and on the other hand, it undermines the dealer network and creates tense competitive relations between the manufacturer and dealers. Another approach is more effective, in which manufacturer prices are closer to dealer prices (of course, this also provides for certain discounts for direct sales). This allows you to maintain friendly partnerships with dealers. There are even examples where a manufacturer fundamentally refers small and medium-sized customers to dealers. Many manufacturers are monitoring pricing policy their dealers, maintaining the same price level and avoiding dumping, as a dangerous factor in destabilizing the market.
The increasing complexity of the market leads to a constant increase in the number of intermediary trading firms (these processes are also actively occurring in the wholesale markets Western countries). Intermediary firms can be divided into two categories. The first ensures the spatial movement of goods (transportation) from producers (including foreign ones) to the point of consumption. The second is the crushing of large quantities of goods and their delivery to medium and small trading companies working directly with customers. At the same time, the latter usually accumulate a fairly wide range of construction products, which is their main advantage compared to direct deliveries (an important factor is also the possibility of purchasing small quantities of goods).
According to wholesalers, in order to stay on the market, they have to regularly conduct pilot marketing research: a test batch of imported and domestic goods (2-4 types) is delivered to the store and, depending on what sells out faster, the priority for future purchases is determined. This arrangement is believed to help generate demand. Most stores specializing in the sale of doors have construction departments in their structure, whose task is to bring doors in the form of semi-finished products in accordance with the requirements and desires of the buyer. Also, the functions of these departments include the provision of services for kitting, assembly, installation and delivery of doors.
The dealer (distribution) network is a key link in the sales system for interior doors, since it is it that directly provides feedback between consumers and manufacturers and conveys information about demand trends to the latter. It should be noted that the dealer network is a kind of economic buffer for the manufacturer, softening seasonal and market fluctuations in consumer demand.
As an example in table. I.1.15 shows the forms of sales of their products by leading manufacturers of interior doors.
Table I.1.15 Forms of product sales by leading manufacturers
|
Representative offices, dealers |
||
|
“Daira”(Saint Petersburg) |
Dealer network in more than 30 cities of the Russian Federation. |
|
|
Volkhovets(Velikiy Novgorod) |
||
|
DOZ-2(Saint Petersburg) |
Dealer network in 9 cities |
|
|
Optimize(Kaliningrad region) |
Dealer network in 25 cities |
|
|
Technowood.ru(Saint Petersburg) |
Representative offices in 9 cities. |
|
|
Prestige(Saint Petersburg) |
Representative offices in 12 cities. |
|
|
Maestro(Yoshkar-Ola) |
Representative offices in 14 cities. |
In the West, there is a clear tendency to intensify the market positions of dealers. Adapting to the changed situation (increasing the share of technically complex products, as well as products specifically designed to meet narrow, differentiated needs), independent wholesale resellers are moving towards closer collaboration with manufacturers. Large wholesale trade firms, using their own market knowledge, began to develop specifications for the production of certain types of products and place orders among small companies. On the other hand, manufacturing companies, in response to the willingness of resellers to cooperate, began to enter into agreements with them on joint advertising and the rights to sell their products in certain areas, and provide consultations.
As a result of close cooperation and coordinated actions of firms in the field of production and trade, groups of formally independent sales representatives have now formed around most manufacturing companies, who act as active conductors of an offensive sales policy. Intermediaries representing a particular company create their own associations. Members of these associations are often involved by manufacturers in the work of marketing and production planning departments.
In Russia, a number of dealers also take a fairly active position.
Depending on the nature of specialization, there is a division into dealers who are clearly focused on one type of product, and multi-product dealers
Small wholesale and retail trade has a significant impact on the development of the building materials market. Small wholesale trade provides 58% of the demand for windows, 61% of the demand for interior doors.
Retail trading companies are divided into several main types:
Universal retail chains selling wide range goods (as a rule, they also have small wholesale divisions);
Separate department stores of building materials with an assortment of up to 1000 items;
Specialized stores (chains) focused on selling specific groups finishing materials and equipment (usually no more than 4-5). The assortment of such stores can reach up to 300-350 items due to related products.
Trading companies offering small-scale production goods (usually their own) - no more than 10-15 items.
A characteristic difference between the St. Petersburg building materials market and the European one is the relatively small number of wholesale and retail corporations, which are widespread in Europe. It is usually headed by a large wholesale company, which purchases goods from various manufacturers at preferential prices, and then distributes them to various stores within the corporation. At the same time, the latter receive assistance from the parent company in the form of a trade loan and provision of modern equipment.
According to representatives of the marketing departments of companies represented on the interior doors market, the relationships between the main consumer characteristics of interior doors are stable and will not change significantly in the forecast period. Consequently, the production of interior doors is proposed to be carried out according to the positions indicated in the table. I.2.1. The positions given in table. I.2.1, selected based on the results of a study of the most popular consumer qualities doors (see Table I.1.7).
|
Average market price in 2003 |
Average market price in 2005 |
|||||||
|
Retail |
Retail |
Retail |
||||||
|
Position 1 |
||||||||
|
Position 2 |
||||||||
|
Position 3 |
||||||||
|
Position 4 |
||||||||
|
Position 5 |
||||||||
|
Position 6 |
||||||||
|
Position 7 |
||||||||
|
Total |
|
Item no. |
Consumer characteristics |
|||||
|
According to the presence of glazing |
By design |
By type of coverage |
By material type |
By filling type |
||
|
Position 1 |
Painted |
|||||
|
Position 2 |
||||||
|
Position 3 |
Tubular chipboard |
|||||
|
Position 4 |
Paneled |
Painted |
||||
|
Position 5 |
Glazed |
Painted |
||||
|
Position 6 |
Glazed |
Paneled |
||||
|
Position 7 |
Glazed |
Paneled |
Tubular chipboard |
Market average Wholesale price interior doors in 2003 was determined on the basis of table I.1.6 “Market distribution by segment “Domestic production/import” in 2003” and table I.1.7 “Market distribution by main consumer characteristics”. The average market wholesale price in 2003 was determined as follows. First, the number of doors (in pieces) presented on the market was determined for each position in the corresponding price segments. Then the cost of the number of doors for each position in the corresponding price segment was determined. After this, we found the total number of doors for each item and the total cost of doors for each item. By dividing the total cost of doors for each item by the total number of doors for each item, the average market wholesale cost of a door for the corresponding item was found.
The average market wholesale price of interior doors in 2005 was determined based on the forecast of the inflation rate in the Russian Federation in 2004 and 2005. (13% and 12%, respectively) and the assumption that the ruble exchange rate against the dollar in 2005 will be 30 rubles/$. The average market wholesale price in 2005 was determined as follows. The average market wholesale price of an interior door for each item in 2003, expressed in $, was converted into rubles (the ruble to dollar exchange rate was assumed to be 29 rubles/$). Then the average market wholesale price was determined taking into account inflation. After this, the price was converted to $.
To determine the average market retail price of interior doors, offers from leading manufacturers were analyzed. During the analysis, it was found that the markup to the wholesale price ranges from 18 to 30%. Smaller markup values apply to the case of selling doors from a warehouse to retail, larger ones - to selling them in a store. At the same time, some manufacturers, subject to purchasing a batch of interior doors over a certain amount, offer a discount of up to 5% of the wholesale price. As a result of processing the analysis results, an average market markup to the wholesale price was obtained, which is 23%.
When determining the average market wholesale and retail prices for interior doors in Moscow, we took into account the fact that in Moscow the distribution of doors is shifted towards more expensive price segments. In addition, the recommended territorial coefficients set out in the collection of average estimated prices for basic construction resources for the Federal Districts and regions STS-5/2004 were used. Thus, a correction factor was determined taking into account the conditions of Moscow. Its value is 1.08 (for St. Petersburg - 1.0).
|
Average market price in 2003 |
Average market price in 2005 |
|||||||
|
Retail |
Retail |
Retail |
||||||
|
Position 1 |
||||||||
|
Position 3 |
||||||||
|
Position 4 |
||||||||
|
Position 5 |
||||||||
|
Position 7 |
||||||||
|
Total |
Currently greatest quantity interior doors are presented in the price segment up to $150: in the Russian Federation 90% of the market, and in Moscow and St. Petersburg - 50% and 87%, respectively. A change in the ratio of interior doors by price segment is predicted:
reducing the share of price segments to $50 and $50-100 by 5% each;
increasing the share of price segments $100-150 and $150-200 by 5 percent each.
During a survey of representatives of the marketing departments of companies represented on the interior doors market, it was found that the structure of the distribution of interior doors by price segments has changed slightly over the past three years. At the same time, the share of products in the price segments up to $50 and $50-100 decreased, and in the price segment $100-150 increased. Based on the general trends in the development of the economy of the Russian Federation, it is assumed that this trend will continue in the next three years.
Currently, the market for interior doors is dominated by products from local manufacturers (for Russia - domestic, for regions - regional). Due to the fact that these products are in demand by the market, the production and sale of interior doors is a profitable although highly competitive business, manufacturing enterprises are significant payers to budgets at the regional level. These same enterprises provide employment to the local population. Regional leadership encourages and will strive to support local producers through economic and other measures, while not allowing producers from other regions to expand their presence in the local market. Therefore, this structure of export/import of interior doors (Fig. I.2.7-I.2.8) will continue in the coming years. When entering the markets of Moscow and the Russian Federation, it will be necessary to take the place of companies that currently import doors (we use the import substitution factor).
1.2.5.1 Scenarios for the development of the interior door market
When moving on to assessing the forecast characteristics of the market in 2005 (the year of the launch of production and the entry of a new player into the market), we will first consider options for market development until 2007.
Maximum growth in construction volumes (housing commissioned in 2007: 45.8 million m2 in the Russian Federation, 5359 thousand m2 in Moscow, 2750 thousand m2 in St. Petersburg, see Table 1.1.2)
The maximum increase in the solvency of the population by 2007 compared to 2003 (in the Russian Federation, solvency will increase by 1.31 times, in Moscow - by 1.81 times, in St. Petersburg - by 1.68 times). The increase in the solvency of the population was determined on the basis of official data on the growth of real income of the population in 2001-2003. and the planned growth of real incomes until 2008 (in the Russian Federation this figure is 106-108% compared to the previous year, in Moscow - 116%, in St. Petersburg - 114%).
Change in the ratio of “consumption of domestically produced doors” / “consumption of imported doors” in the regions towards an increase in the share of imported doors (in 2007, 70/30 in the Russian Federation, 58/42 in Moscow, 60/40 in St. Petersburg).
The probability of the scenario occurring is 0.01575.
Scenario C2 (most unfavorable).
Decrease in construction volumes as a result of political and financial turmoil. By analogy with 1998, the decrease in construction volumes for the next year will average 6%, followed by an increase of 3% per year. If a crisis occurs in the summer of 2005, housing commissioning in 2005/2006/2007 in the Russian Federation will be 39.6/36.2/37.3 million m2, in Moscow - 4630/4230/4360 thousand m2, in St. Petersburg - 2125/1880/1940 thousand m 2)
The solvency of the population decreased in 2006 compared to 2005 by 1.8 times and maintained this level in 2007.
The probability of the scenario occurring is 0.00025.
Scenario C3.
The probability of the scenario occurring is 0.0045.
Scenario C4.
Construction volumes are stable and remain at the 2004 level (housing commissioned in 2004 was 38.5 million m 2 in the Russian Federation, 4,500 thousand m 2 in Moscow, 2,000 thousand m 2 in St.
Change in the ratio of “consumption of doors of own production” / “consumption of imported doors” in the regions towards an increase in the share of doors of own production (in 2007, 80/20 in the Russian Federation, 70/30 in Moscow and St. Petersburg).
The probability of the scenario occurring is 0.002.
Scenario C5.
An increase in the solvency of the population by 2007 compared to 2003 by 50% from the maximum level considered in scenario C1 (in the Russian Federation, solvency will increase by 1.15 times, in Moscow - by 1.4 times, in St. Petersburg - by 1.34 times).
Change in the regions of the ratio “consumption of doors of own production” / “consumption of imported doors” towards an increase in the share of imported doors by 50% from the maximum level considered in scenario C1 (in 2007 72/28 in the Russian Federation, 60/40 in Moscow, 63/37 in St. Petersburg).
The probability of the scenario occurring is 0.11.
Scenario C6.
Growth in construction volumes by 50% from the maximum level considered in scenario C1 (housing commissioned in 2007: 41.1 million m2 in the Russian Federation, 5031 thousand m2 in Moscow, 2254 thousand m2 in St. Petersburg)
The solvency of the population remains at the level of 2003-2004.
Change in the ratio of “consumption of doors of own production” / “consumption of imported doors” in the regions towards an increase in the share of doors of own production (in 2007, 80/20 in the Russian Federation, 70/30 in Moscow and St. Petersburg).
The probability of the scenario occurring is 0.004125.
The probabilities of the occurrence of each of the scenarios were determined based on the probability of occurrence of the risks presented in Table 1.13 and obtaining the probabilities for the number of missing events. Since the scenarios listed above do not constitute a complete group of events, their total probability is not equal to 1.
The most likely scenario is scenario C5, the probability of which is 0.11.
Table I.2.3 Forecast indicators of the interior doors market in 2007 by region independing on the scenario
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Indicators |
Scenario number |
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Total, million units |
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Total, million $ |
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Domestic consumption, million $ |
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Import, million units |
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Import, million $ |
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Total, thousand pieces |
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Total, million $ |
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Domestic consumption, million $ |
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Import, thousand pieces |
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Import, million $ |
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Saint Petersburg |
Total, thousand pieces |
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Total, million $ |
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Domestic consumption, thousand units |
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Domestic consumption, million $ |
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Import, thousand pieces |
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Import, million $ |
Since the expected entry into the market (launch of production) is planned for 2005, the table below shows the forecast indicators of the interior door market for 2005 for the specified geographical regions, depending on the scenario. At the same time, only the most probable scenario C5, the “maximum” scenario C1 and the “minimum” scenario C3 are left. The scenario indicators have changed due to changes in the planning horizon.
Table I.2.4 Forecast indicators of the interior doors market in 2005 by region independing on the scenario
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Indicators |
Scenario number |
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Total, million units |
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Total, million $ |
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Domestic consumption, million units |
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Domestic consumption, million $ |
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Imported doors, million pieces |
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Imported doors, million $ |
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Total, thousand pieces |
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Total, million $ |
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Domestic consumption, thousand units |
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Domestic consumption, million $ |
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Imported doors, thousand pieces |
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Imported doors, million $ |
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Saint Petersburg |
Total, thousand pieces |
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Total, million $ |
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Domestic consumption, thousand units |
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Domestic consumption, million $ |
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Imported doors, thousand pieces |
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Imported foreign doors/imported domestic doors*, thousand pieces |
44.1/ 84.6 |
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Imported doors, million $ |
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Imported foreign doors/imported domestic doors, million $ |
5.1/ 9.7 |
*In Table 1.2.4, the ratio “imported foreign doors / imported domestic doors” is given for St. Petersburg based on a survey of representatives of companies involved in the sale of doors. For the Russian Federation, imported doors mean imports.
Scenario C1 (most favorable).
Maximum growth in construction volumes (housing commissioned in 2005: 40.8 million m 2 in the Russian Federation, 4,770 thousand m 2 in Moscow, 2,250 thousand m 2 in St. Petersburg)
The maximum increase in the solvency of the population by 2005 compared to 2003 (in the Russian Federation, solvency will increase by 1.14 times, in Moscow - by 1.34 times, in St. Petersburg - by 1.29 times).
Change in the regions of the ratio “consumption of doors of own production” / “consumption of imported doors” towards an increase in the share of imported doors (in 2005, 73/27 in the Russian Federation, 60/40 in Moscow, 63/37 in St. Petersburg).
Scenario C3.
Construction volumes are stable, remaining at the 2004 level (housing commissioned in 2004: 38.5 million m2 in the Russian Federation, 4500 thousand m2 in Moscow, 2000 thousand m2 in St. Petersburg)
The solvency of the population remains at the level of 2003-2004.
Maintaining the ratio “consumption of domestically produced doors” / “consumption of imported doors” in the regions at the 2003 level (see Table 1.1.6).
Scenario C5.
Growth in construction volumes by 50% from the maximum level considered in scenario C1 (housing commissioned in 2005 38.55 million m 2 in the Russian Federation, 4736.6 thousand m 2 in Moscow, 2004 thousand m 2 in St. Petersburg )
An increase in the solvency of the population by 2005 compared to 2003 by 50% from the maximum level considered in scenario C1 (in the Russian Federation, solvency will increase by 1.07 times, in Moscow - by 1.17 times, in St. Petersburg - by 1.14 times).
Change in the regions of the ratio “consumption of doors of own production” / “consumption of imported doors” towards an increase in the share of imported doors by 50% from the maximum level considered in scenario C1 (in 2005 74/26 in the Russian Federation, 61/39 in Moscow, 64/36 in St. Petersburg).
The following is considered as initial data:
Market development scenario - C5; the average wholesale price of a door is 120 US dollars, the average retail price of a door is 148 US dollars.
When developing all strategies, it is assumed that market presence in 2005 is ensured by displacing both imported (foreign and domestic) and domestically produced doors with quality products at a price 5% lower than the market average. The ratio of imported foreign and domestic doors is given in table. I.2.5.
Table I.2.5 Dynamics of changes in the ratio of imported foreign and domestic doors in the studied regions
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Foreign |
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Foreign |
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Domestic |
Purpose and objectives, organization and content, stages of marketing research. Analysis of supply on the window and door market in St. Petersburg. Assessment of demand in the window and door market of St. Petersburg. Analysis of market development trends. course work, added 12/03/2003 Sales, distribution and distribution of products. Integrated management of logistics functions and promotion operations finished products from manufacturers and/or wholesalers to end consumers. Construction of product sales channels. presentation, added 09/30/2016 Determination of the structure and levels of goods distribution channels. Types and advantages of using advertising as a means of promoting a product on the market. Evaluation of the effectiveness of measures to stimulate product sales using the example of Sedin-Electro OJSC. course work, added 11/28/2010 Rotunda LLC is a leader in the door market. Refinement and improvement of lock production technology. Thermal and sound insulation requirements for apartment doors, burglary protection. Anti-burglary devices that make it difficult to open doors. course work, added 11/09/2008 Comparative analysis methods and methods of promoting goods and services on the market, its features. Organization of sales of products of JSC "Wimm-Bill-Dann": creation and history of the company, segmentation of the market and consumer; marketing, advertising, sales promotion. course work, added 10/02/2014 Analysis of the sales market for the products of Top-Modus LLC and the demand for it. Assessing the competitiveness of products, researching buyer needs and market requirements. Analysis of the enterprise's pricing policy. Determination of means and methods of product promotion. course work, added 05/26/2013 Methods of organizing sales activities and promoting the company's products. The influence of sales and promotion of products on the efficiency of the enterprise. Ways to improve the organization of sales and promotion of products in the trading company Fissman LLC. course work, added 07/29/2017 Concept of industrial market. Specifics of marketing, sales promotion and means of promoting goods on the industrial market. Analysis of the features of each promotion channel: advertising, objects and goals of PR promotion, personal sales, direct marketing. abstract, added 09/17/2009 The main directions for promoting the organization’s products on the market. Trends and main problems in promoting the products of domestic enterprises domestically and foreign markets. Development of advertising products for OJSC "AFPK Zhlobin Meat Processing Plant". |
As an independent segment, the Russian steel door market began to take shape only in the late 80s - early 90s, but, developing intensively over the next decades, it acquired high competitiveness and enriched itself wide range offers from European, Asian, domestic manufacturers.
Share of foreign manufacturers in the Russian market
Global brands in our country are represented by Italian companies Fbs, Dierre, Di.Bi, which focus on the design characteristics of their products, and Israeli companies Pandoor and Mul-t-Lock, which offer high-quality designs equipped with powerful locks.
As for the eastern neighbors producing entrance doors, the review can be supplemented by Chinese trade marks, whose products do not differ in quality, but have a very low cost, and this makes them attractive in the eyes of some of our compatriots.
However, 90% of the Russian metal door market belongs to numerous domestic brands. They offer a wide range of options from the simplest budget models to complex armored structures, original design products, as well as ultra-modern office doors, equipped the latest systems security. Entrance doors in Russia include many large and small companies from Moscow, Yoshkar-Ola, Saratov and other cities of the country.
Market of Moscow and region
The Jaguar-M company settled in the Moscow market back in the late 80s, today occupying a significant part of it. The advantages of products from this brand include the flexibility of their configuration: if necessary, the model is made individually to suit the needs of the client, who determines the choice of locks, fittings, and finishes.
Thanks to the increased thickness of steel produced by the hot-rolled method, the presence of multi-directional stiffening ribs, mineral wool insulation and two sealing contours, the use of ball hinges, anti-removals and vertical locking bolts, such products are successfully used for indoor and outdoor use, providing a high level of noise insulation of the room and protecting it from unauthorized penetrations.
In the review of the Moscow door market, it is worth including the Steel company, which opened its production in 1991 and today is also one of the oldest manufacturers steel structures Russia. Along with vestibule, technical, and fire-fighting models, the company produces armored products that are distinguished by a multi-channel locking system, a thickened locking area, and the use of high-quality seals and insulation.
As for the lesser-known brands that represent entrance doors in Moscow, the review can be supplemented by the companies Legrand, Hephaestus, Garant, Oplot, which offer middle-class products for various types of premises.
The Belka company produces products certified for 1-4 classes of burglary resistance and 1-3 classes of resistance to small arms. The basic configuration of the models includes 2.5 mm thick steel (on both sides), 2 locks, one of which is equipped with additional bolts, and secret fastening of decorative panels.
As locks and fittings for products from Jaguar-M, Stal, Neman, Die Hard, etc., products from European, Turkish, and Israeli manufacturers are used, among which the brands CISA, Kale, Mottura, Mul-T-Lock, etc. are especially respected.
Doors made in Russia are represented by a significant number of manufacturers concentrated in the Yoshkar-Ola region. This is a large company called Guardian and a lot of lesser-known factories - Express Garant, Aristocrat, Pharaoh, Argus, Intekron, etc.
The Guardian brand is known not only for its steel products, represented by ready-made options and produced for individual orders, but also with locking mechanisms of varying complexity. After spending detailed review steel doors in the Guardian assortment, one can note their burglary resistance (to achieve this quality door block equipped with a special armored package and continuous anti-removals), tightness, pleasant appearance.
Manufacturers from other regions of the country
In addition to Moscow and Yoshkar-Ola manufacturers, the factories of Kirov (Steel Portier), Tomsk (Etalon), Voronezh (Zetta), and Saratov also entered the domestic door market.
Among the Saratov factories special place occupied by Torex, which has been operating for more than 20 years. In its production, the company uses rolled cold-rolled steel with a thickness of 1.2-1.5 mm, supplementing the metal sheet with a special grid.
The professor is steel doors made in Russia, represented by a company from Engels, which uses 2 mm thick steel, multi-circuit seals in the manufacture of doors, innovative technologies insulation (for example, a heated box), lighting elements.
In the review of metal entrance doors, it is worth including Forpost doors, which are sold not only in Russia, but also in some CIS countries. The company, founded in 1998, offers products of burglary resistance classes 1 and 2, made of high-alloy steel and equipped with a multi-circuit rebate system, hidden hinges safe type, comprehensive protection of the cylinder mechanism.
Domestic market entrance doors is also represented by such well-known brands as Bars, Buldors, Sesame, Sonex, Bastion, etc. - new companies emerge every year, supplementing the rich assortment of Russian steel structures with their own offers.
The Russian market of entrance doors began to emerge as an independent segment in the 80-90s of the twentieth century. In response to demand, domestically produced steel doors appeared on the market, which had rather primitive designs. These doors did not have anti-removal pins, internal insulation, or seals along the vestibule; the locks used were very simple, not suitable for steel doors, and the design left much to be desired.
In the mid-90s, the craze for these doors swept across Russia. At the same time, no attention was paid to the most important thing - technological and technical details. The doors were extremely unreliable and not resistant to criminal opening. They consisted of a frame made from a corner, a frame made of rolled metal, mostly pipes or a corner, with zero locks and simple hinges, roughly welded one or two sheets of metal and a minimum of finishing options. Such doors were sold only through advertisements in newspapers, with constantly changing dispatchers (due to reluctance to bear responsibility for defects and complaints). At the same time, the cheapness of such doors is also an advertising gimmick. At the final calculation, the cost of the door always increased 2-3 times due to additional work, installation costs, and minor modifications to this piece of scrap metal. But, even despite the imperfection of the designs, these doors were more reliable than standard wooden ones and were in constant, steady demand.
Then, in the mid-90s, steel doors from Western manufacturers appeared on the market, having modern designs, which could provide much more effective protection. These doors gained some popularity, being head and shoulders above domestic offerings of that time. But these were doors from a completely different price group, inaccessible to most Russians.
This pushed domestic manufacturers to produce competitive goods. Today, a number of domestic companies have products that are not inferior to their Western counterparts.
Currently on the market are various models doors from Russian and foreign manufacturers of different configurations, styles, prices.
The volume of consumption of steel doors in the Moscow region in 2007 is estimated at about 1 million doors, which is 5.9% higher than consumption in 2006.
Source: based on manufacturers’ assessments, Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation
The level of consumption of steel doors on the Moscow market in 2007 is estimated at 58 brothers-in-law per 1 thousand population, which is 5.7% higher than the 2006 level.
| Index | Unit | Meaning |
|
| 2006 | 2007 (estimate) |
||
| Consumption volume of steel doors | thousand pieces | ||
| Population | thousand people | 17053 | 17088 |
| Consumption rate of steel doors | doors/thousand population | 55 | 58 |
Source: based on Rosstat data, manufacturer estimates, Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation
It should be noted that the growth of the steel door market in the Moscow region has stabilized in recent years - the market has approached the maturity stage.
The product life cycle is a dynamic concept in which an industry goes through a series of stages or phases in its development - market entry, growth, maturity and decline. These stages are determined by moments of change in the growth rate of industry sales volume. The industry's sales growth graph follows an S-shaped curve, which is explained by the process of innovation and new product diffusion.
The development of the steel door market in Moscow and the Moscow region today is at the stage of maturity, which is characterized by non-expanding primary demand, growing at the same speed as the economy.
Source: AKPR estimate
The main characteristics of the steel door industry within the maturity stage and their impact on the strategy are presented in the table:
The forecast of demand for steel doors in the market of Moscow and the Moscow region was carried out taking into account the following factors:
Diagram 3.2 shows the dynamics of demand for steel doors on the market of Moscow and the Moscow region from construction market until 2015.
Source: AKPR estimate
The annual increase in demand for steel doors in the market of Moscow and the Moscow region until 2012 will remain at the level of 3.2% per annum. During the period 2013-2015. it will be reduced to 2.8% per annum.
In general, by 2015, the demand for steel doors in the market of Moscow and the Moscow region, compared with the demand in 2006, will increase by 35% to 1.25 million steel doors.
With regard to the industry structure of demand for steel doors in the market of Moscow and the Moscow region, it should be noted that by 2015 it will not undergo significant changes - the largest consumers of steel doors in the market of Moscow and the Moscow region will also be residential premises.
